摘要
区域物流是全国乃至国际物流系统的重要组成部分,对区域经济的发展具有服务引导作用。本文对我国物流发展进行了分析,对灰色预测模型GM(1,1)的建模过程进行了研究,用已预测值和GM(1,1)原始序列一起做精度检验,根据未来数据的变化,设计了改进型的灰色预测模型,并结合实例进行了应用研究,得出了更接近实际的预测结果。通过误差检验,改进模型具有较高的预测精度,是一种非常实用的预测方法。
Regional logistics is an important part of logistics system in the world, It provides service and guidance for regional economy development. In this paper, the current logistics development of our country is analyzed. The process of model established of grey prediction model GM （1,1）is studied. A new Way to improve the old model is put forward in the paper. The improved model is used in the exampie application. It uses the forecasted message and old model to make the error analysis, An actual application of the logistics scale prediction is made to illustrate the effectiveness of the new way. This development method is very effective.
出处
《农业装备与车辆工程》
2006年第12期15-17,共3页
Agricultural Equipment & Vehicle Engineering
关键词
区域物流
需求预测
灰色模型
regional logistics
demand forecasting
grey model
