摘要
对船用堆事故进行事件树分析时,历史数据的缺乏常常导致无法进行事件序列的定量计算。针对这一问题,利用专家对事故的模糊评判,引入模糊事件树进行定量计算研究。在模糊集理论的基础上,结合德尔菲法和判断矩阵法,详细阐述了模糊事件树在船用堆事故分析中的应用过程。研究表明,船用堆事故概率的模糊事件树分析是切实可行的,有助于船用反应堆概率安全评价的发展。
Due to lack of historical data, it＇s impossible to calculate the possibilities of event sequences of submarine reactor accident quantitatively. According to fuzzy evaluation of some experts, the fuzzy event tree is introduced in this paper to do quantitative calculation. On the basis of fuzzy set, delphi method and judging matrix method, the author explains the applying process of fuzzy event in accident analysis to submarine reactor. The research shows that it is practical to put the fuzzy event tree into submarine accident analysis and the application will help the development of probabilistic safety analysis.
出处
《中国修船》
2006年第6期43-45,共3页
China Shiprepair
关键词
事件树分析
模糊集
船用反应堆
事故分析
event tree analysis
fuzzy set
submarine reactor
accident analysis
