摘要
运用多元线性回归分析法建立雪冰融水型洪水预报模型,并采用新疆下坂地水库上游伊尔列黑水文控制站和喀什探空站2001年的实测资料进行模型检验。若采用日平均流量相对误差不大于20%作为模型的评价标准,则模型的整体预报合格率为82%,属于乙等预报水平,因此该模型可以用于实际的工程作业,解决施工期洪水预报难题。
The multi-linear regression analysis method is used to establish the floodwater predicting model of snow-ice melting type. This model is tested by using the 2001 year real measured data from the Yierliehi hydrology control station and Kashi sounding station of the upstream of Xiabandi Reservior in Xinjiang. If the daily average flow relative error no less than 20% is adopted as the evaluation standard for the model, the entire predicting rate of the model can be 82%, falling into class B of predicting level. For this reason, this model can be used in practical engineering operation so as to solve the difficult problem in predicting floodwater during the construction period.
出处
《西安理工大学学报》
CAS
2006年第3期253-256,共4页
Journal of Xi'an University of Technology
关键词
雪冰融水
洪水预报模型
多元线性回归
snow-ice-melting water
floodwater predicting model； multi-linear regression
