摘要
根据广东４７个测站１９５４～１９９０年逐年１月和７月气温、降水和日照时数的标准化资料作ＥＯＦ、周期和线性回归分析，得到：①各要素最重要的空间分布型式（ＥＯＦ１）是表示全省各地变化位相相同的分布，其中气温ＥＯＦ１的分布最为均匀，而且各要素的ＥＯＦ１在１月的分布也较７月的分布规则．②近４０年来全省性气候变化有一定的周期性特点，其中尤以二月份气温的７ａ周期变化最为显著．线性回归分析表明广东气候变化基本上是稳定的，没有明显的线性增、减趋势．③广东各要素的极端异常变化可能与Ｅｌｎｉｎｏ有密切关系．
Based on monthly cli-mate data of more than forty stations, the characteristics of cli-mate change in Guangdong during 1954￣ 1990 have been analyzed by means of EOF, linear regressios and others. The results are as follows: ① The EOF 1 distributions of all climate elements in Jan and Jul are similar, and their signs of all stations are the same. In three elements, the EOF 1 distribution of temperature is the simpliest; and for all elements, the EOF 1 distributions in Jan are simplier than in Jul. ② The periodical characteristics of climate change are clear. The priodics, such as 2￣ 3 year, 5￣ 7year, 11 ￣ 14year, are obtained, specially, the 7 year periodic change of temperature in Jan is most significant. The linear regression analyses show that the climate change during nearly forty years is basically stable. ③ The extre-abnomal changes in all elements may be closely connected with Elnino events.
出处
《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
1996年第3期92-97,共6页
Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni
基金
广东省自然科学基金
关键词
气候变化
广东
气温
降水
日照
climate change, climatic trend, periodicity, empirical orthogonal function
