摘要
应实际业务预报需要,利用最新43年欧洲中期数值预报中心(ECMWF)逐日再分析资料,采用多种动力相似方法研究了广东省短期区域暴雨预报,发现了预报员预报经验成长曲线模式,找到了影响暴雨预报的决定性因子850hPa风场,证明了双时次相似的优越性,并研制了广东短期区域暴雨预报的动力相似法,预报评分明显高于业务平均水平。该方法的应用软件实现了短期区域暴雨的自动、客观、定时、定点、定量预报,目前已经投入业务使用。
To meet the urgent need of operational rainstorm forecast in Guangdong province, we use newly-released ECMWF reanalyzed daily data（45 years） to study the dynamic analogue methods. We got the experience-growth curve model of ideal forecaster, which appears to be a powerful function. We found that a decisive factor in the forecast is the 850-hpa wind and statistics show the advantage of the two-time-levels analogue method. We developed Guangdong short-term regional rainstorm forecast system based on these results and had remarkably better forecast score than the real operational forecast in recent 3 years. The applied software has been put into operational run and is making rainstorm forecast automatically, objectively, timingly, locally and quantitatively.
出处
《热带气象学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第2期198-202,共5页
Journal of Tropical Meteorology
基金
广州中心气象台
广东省气象局
广东省科技计划项目2003C32607共同资助
关键词
广东省
短期区域暴雨预报
动力相似法
相似距离
Guangdong province regional
short-term rainstorm forecast
dynamic analogue method
analogue distance
