摘要
安全经济贡献率的准确计算对于指导国家安全投入力度和宏观安全决策起着重要作用。为了准确计算中国安全生产对经济的贡献率,以弥补以往经验取值方法的局限,笔者通过建立计量经济学模型,获得了精确的安全产出与安全投入的函数关系,并得出我国安全生产规模报酬递增的结论。在此基础上又建立时间序列模型,预测出我国2005年的安全经济贡献率为3.01%,安全投入产出比为1.00∶1.81。从预测结果来看,计量模型收到了满意的结果,对国家宏观安全决策具有一定的指导意义。
Rational and exact computation of the rate of safety economy contribution is of great importance in directing national safety investment and macro decision-rmking on safety. In order to accurately compute the rate of contribution to overcome the limitation of past empirical evaluation, an econometric model is established, from which more accurate functional relationship between safety input and output is obtained. A result of increasing reward of production safety in China is obtained. It is on this basis that the predicted rate of safety economy contribution of 3.01% and the predicted input/output ratio of 1.00：1.81 in China in 2005 are obtained through an established time sequence analysis model. From above predicted results it could be seen that the econometric model is satisfactory which is significant in directing the national macro decision-making on safety in certain extent.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2006年第1期55-59,共5页
China Safety Science Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金资助(50274060)
国家安全生产监督管理局科研计划项目资助(03-103)。
关键词
安全经济贡献率
安全生产函数
安全投入产出比
时间序列模型
预测
rate of safety economy contribution
production safety function
ratio between safety input and output
time sequence model
forecast
