摘要
在评价国外油气储量成本计算方法的同时,针对油气勘探投资的长期累积性和探明地质储量在时点分布上的不均衡性,分别引入了物价指数和时间价值因素;对投资和储量的价值进行了相应地调整,对物价水平的变化采用了起始年和当前年2个参照基准,提出了静态储量成本、不变价格储量成本、增量储量成本和动态储量成本等4个概念,并按照单年平均、累积平均和移动平均等不同统计方法建立了相应的数学模型。对胜利油区1986—2002年的勘探和投资数据进行了测算,对储量成本的历史发展趋势和随机分布状态进行了统计分析,分析结果表明,物价和时间价值因素对储量成本计算有显著影响。为了提高成本信息的相关性,使用动态储量成本指标对石油天然气公司的勘探效益进行评价更为恰当。
Computing methods of overseas oil & gas reserve cost were evaluated. In the same time, price index and time value factors were introduced separately for the long - term accumulation of oil & gas exploration investment and the unbalance of proved geology reserves at time - space distribution. By adjusting the value of investment and reserves, adopting the initial year and the current year as the reference standard of price level change, four concepts of static,fixed price,incremental and dynamic reserve cost were presented, then the mathematical models were set up according to the different statistical methods such as single year average , accumulative average and moving average. The data of the exploration and investment in 1986 -2002 were calculated, and the history trend and stochastic distribution state of the reserve cost were statistically analyzed. The results shows that the factors of price and time value obviously influence the reserve cost calculation, and dynamic reserve cost is more available to evaluate the exploration benefit in oil & gas company in order to enhance the correlation of the cost information.
出处
《油气地质与采收率》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2006年第1期1-4,共4页
Petroleum Geology and Recovery Efficiency
基金
中国石油化工股份有限公司科研项目"中石化‘七五’以来勘探基础数据汇总与勘探效益评价"(WX2003-15)的研究成果之一
关键词
油气勘探
风险投资
储量成本
oil & gas exploration,risk investment,reserve cost
