摘要
应用灰色理论建立了GM(1,1)模型,对华北地区某典型区农业用水量进行了预测。所建模型经残差检验证明其模型具有可行性和适应性,在此基础上,通过对典型区农业需水量的预测,为研究区域的水资源综合规划提供了依据。该方法可供相关县级小区域水资源评价与规划中作为参考。
This article applies a GM （1,1） model of Grey System Theory established to forecasts the agricultural water demand of an area in northern China. With the residual error test, the model is proven feasible and adaptable. On this basis, through the agricultural water demand forecast in the typical area we can get support for comprehensive programming of water resource in the regions studied. This method can be regarded as a reference for water resource evaluation and programming in related county districts.
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2005年第11期24-26,共3页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
基金
国家863计划项目(2002AA2Z4290)
2002年河南省创新人才基金项目
关键词
农业用水量
需水预测
灰色模型
残差检验
agricultural water consumption
water demand forecasting
Grey Model
residual error test
