摘要
应用灰色预测ＧＭ（１，１）模型，导出其响应函数，对上海市的火灾发灾频次作了实例预测。然后对预测模型作了检验，预测精度是２级，检验结论符合要求。对城市人为灾害的灰色预测，为防灾减灾的决策部署提供了依据。
By the GM (1,1) model of Grey Forecast,its respondent function has been calculated. The fire frequency in Shanghai has been forecasted to be a practical example. It is in accordance with the fact on the demanded preciseness scope in terms of test.
出处
《灾害学》
CSCD
1996年第2期19-22,共4页
Journal of Catastrophology
关键词
城市
人为灾害
灰色预测
灰色模型
City countermeasures, Man-made disaster,Grey Forecast,GreyModel
