摘要
根据1971～2009年期间发生的El Nino/La Nina事件和许昌市气象资料,利用统计分析的方法分析了1971年以来许昌气温、降水、旱涝灾害与El Nino/La Nina事件之间的关系,初步揭示了El Nino/La Nina事件对许昌气候的影响。结果表明,许昌市39年来温度和降水均有升高的趋势;厄尔尼诺年平均气温比正常年份高0.1℃,平均降水量比正常年份少34mm,厄尔尼诺次年降水增加,降水量多于正常年份35.3mm;拉尼娜年气温上升且波动较大,拉尼娜发生年平均气温比正常年份高0.3℃,拉尼娜年降水量多于正常年份2.3mm,拉尼娜次年降水量少于正常年份15.5mm;从气温来讲,拉尼娜年许昌气温的上升幅度要大于厄尔尼诺年气温的上升幅度。从降水量上来讲,厄尔尼诺年对许昌降水量的影响度要大于拉尼娜年对降水的影响度。El/La事件对许昌市旱涝灾害影响显著,拉尼娜年发生大涝灾害的几率较大。
According to the statistical data of El Nio /La Nia event in the world and the meteorological data of Xuchang city in Henan province during the years of 1971-2009,this article used statistical analysis method to analyze the relationships between El Nio /La Nia event and Xuchang temperature,rainfall,drought,flood disaster since 1971.The results showed that both the temperature and rainfall of Xuchang have been increasing since 1971.In El Nio year,the average temperature was 0.1 ℃ higher than that in the normal year,and the average rainfall was 34.0 mm less than that in the normal year.While the average rainfall in the next year of El Nio year was 35.3 mm more than that in the normal year.In La Nia year,the yearly temperature ascended and greatly fluctuated,the average temperature was 0.3 ℃ higher than that in the normal year,and the average rainfall was 2.3 mm more than that in the normal year.While the average rainfall in the next year of La Nia year was 15.5 mm less than that in the normal year.So La Nia event had greater influence on the average temperature in Xuchang than El Nio event,while the former had less effect on the average rainfall than the latter.El Nio /La Nia event had significant effects on the drought and flood disasters of Xuchang,and in La Nia year flood disaster was more likely to occur.
出处
《江西农业学报》
2010年第10期89-92,共4页
Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"秦岭南北全球变化适应度评价及可持续发展模式选择"(40871052)
