摘要
选取哈尔滨地区空间位置构成三角区域的哈尔滨站、尚志站、通河站三个台站日气象数据:利用统计分析方法研究了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)事件对1955—2011年的平均气温、降水量的影响。结果表明:近57年来哈尔滨地区气温以0.32℃?(10a)^(-1)的速率升高,超过全国平均升温值0.26℃?(10a)^(-1);降水量以^(-1)4.21 mm?(10a)^(-1)的速率减少,比全国平均水平减少的更快。小波分析表明:哈尔滨气温变化在30 a的时间尺度上存在4 a和7 a的周期;降水量变化存在24 a的主周期。ENSO暖事件年哈尔滨气温略有升高,降水量略有减少;ENSO冷事件年的气温、降水变化与华北、西北地区不同,气温明显升高,降水明显减少,ENSO冷事件对哈尔滨地区气候影响较大。哈尔滨地区在ENSO冷事件年发生旱灾的可能性更大。本文研究可为哈尔滨地区减少旱涝灾害损失提供指导。
Background, aim, and scope Facing the high frequency of El Nino-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） events appear in recent years, global climates change strongly, especially in northern hemisphere. Temperature and precipitation levels in ENSO warm （cold） year are more different from the normal year, causing serious flood and drought problems, great loss in people＇s daily life, industrial and agricultural production. For avoiding and solving such problems, people should figure out the happening mechanism of ENSO events, also the characteristics, trend and cycle, also the physical mechanism between ocean and air, so that people can predict it exactly someday. Harbin is the capital of Heilongjiang province, belongs to temperate continental monsoon climate, plain topography, abundant water resources. So Harbin becomes the mainly food production area in the northeast of China, certainly worth to be researched. Materials and methods Select the daily meteorological data from 1955-2011 of Harbin station, Shangzhi station, Tonghe station forming a triangle in Harbin region. Including the average temperature, the annual precipitation, the temperature anomaly of each year. Average values of the three stations represent the climate values of Harbin region. Time table of ENSO events is statistics of the references, take the definition of Kevin E Trenberth and sea surface temperature anomalies of the National Climate Center as the division basis of the cold and warm events. Calculating the precipitation anomaly percentage （R） to measure the drought and flood level. Using the linear trend method, anomaly and comparative method, Morlet wavelet analysis to analyze. Results During 1955-2011, among the 57 a, 2 a is the minimum of ENSO events reappear cycle, 6 a is the maximum. ENSO cold and warm events mainly happened in spring and autumn season, ended in spring and winter season. In recent 57 a, annual precipitation fluctuates little, while overall in the decline. Precipitation has a 24 a main cycle variation, 3.3 a and 7.5
出处
《地球环境学报》
CSCD
2017年第2期137-147,共11页
Journal of Earth Environment
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40672108)
黄土与第四纪地质国家重点实验室开放基金项目(SKLLQG1428)~~
关键词
哈尔滨地区
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动
周期规律
气温
降水量
旱涝灾害
Harbin region
El Nino-Southern Oscillation
cycle regulation
temperature
precipitation
drought and flood disasters
