摘要
以四川省水电投资与其经济发展的关系为例,以研究水电投资建设期对区域经济的影响为目的,运用投入产出法分析了水电投资对社会总产值、对相关行业、以及对就业的影响。分析结果显示:水电投资1万元,会带动四川省总产值的增长约3.46万元;在对相关行业的影响上,四川省水电投资对机械工业的带动作用最大,投资弹性为1.9%;对社会服务业的影响也较大,投资弹性为1.56%;排在第三位的是电子及通信设备制造业,投资弹性为1.41%。1997年四川省水电投资建设期对其就业的带动作用最大,增加了83.52万人的就业量。最后,运用了时间序列分析法自回归移动平均模型(ARMA)对未来四川省的投入产出情况进行了预测,根据未来的水电投资计划安排,计算出四川省2005年、2010年、2015年由于水电投资带来的总产值的增量分别为1.57%,2.13%和2.24%(以2000年为基期)。以上分析结果表明水电投资建设期对当地经济将产生重要的带动作用。
Taking the Sichuan province as an example, this paper presents the study on the relationship between hydro-electricity investment and the economic development using the input-output approach. The results show that the total output value increases 34.6 thousands yuan with the 10 thousands yuan of hydro-electricity investments. The hydro-electricity investment has the most important pushing role on the machinery industry with the investment elasticity of 19%. It has a big effect on the service industry with the investment elasticity of 1.56%. It also has a significant impact on the electronics and communication equipment manufacture industry with the investment elasticity of 1.41%. In 1997 the hydro-electricity investment in Sichuan province promoted the employment to a great degree by increasing 835.2 thousands employee. Furthermore , the model of ARMA was used to anticipate the input-output situation in future. The total output values in year 2005, year 2010 and year 2015 would increase by 1.57%, 2.13% and 2.24% respectively comparing with the value of year 2000 based on the calculation using the hydro-electricity investments plan data. It has been shown that the construction period of hydro-electricity investments will have an important pushing role on the regional economic development.
出处
《现代电力》
2005年第3期76-79,共4页
Modern Electric Power
基金
国家电力公司科技项目
关键词
水电投资
区域经济
经济发展
定量分析
自回归移动平均模型
hydro-electricity investments
regional economy
economic development
quantitative analysis
autoregressive sliding average models
