摘要
本文系统分析了未来全球经济政治和资源格局演变趋势,指出未来10年东西方经济地位将发生逆转,各方势力在亚洲的角逐将愈演愈烈;全球资源供需短期将供过于求,2020年后亚洲资源供需矛盾将日益凸显,并助推非洲在全球矿业地位进一步提升;美洲将藉由非常规油气大规模开发,成为全球能源新供应地,并对世界能源和地缘格局产生深远影响。未来中国经济增速将逐步降低;资源需求将出现分异:即煤炭、铁矿石、铜、铝等大宗矿产需求将逐步下降,石油、天然气等清洁能源和稀土、铂族、铌钽、萤石等战略性新兴产业矿产需求将持续增长;同时,持续高强度的资源开发导致中国国内资源可持续供应能力堪忧,矿产资源总体对外依存度将维持高位。基于对未来全球经济政治和资源格局的研判,提出中国矿产资源战略应实现两大转变,一是矿产资源开发利用实现由"充分利用‘两种资源,两个市场’",向"最大限度利用境外资源,合理保护国内资源"的战略转变;二是矿业"走出去"实现由单纯的获取或占有海外资源,向"经略全球资源"的战略转变。
This paper systematically analyzed future trends for global political,economic and resources structural evolution,and found that the East-West economic status will be reversed in the next 10 years. The global resources market will be in oversupply in the short term;and resource contradiction between supply and demand in Asia will become increasingly prominent after 2020.This will enhance the status of Africa in the global mining market,With the development of unconventional oil and gas resources,America will become the new energy supplier. These changes will have far-reaching impacts for the global energy and geopolitical pattern. China's economic growth will gradually reduce in the future,and resource demand will show differentiation:the demand for bulk minerals,such as coal,ore,copper and aluminum will gradually decline,while the mineral demand for clean energy,oil,or natural gas,and strategic and emerging industries resources such as Rare earth,Platinum,Niobium,Tantalum and Fluorite will continue to increase. Chinese resource development intensity is too high,the sustainable supply capacity will gradually deteriorate,and domestic mineral resource external dependence will remain high. Based on the judgment of future global economic,political and resource patterns,we propose a domestic resources strategy to achieve two major changes in the future:(1)a mineral resource development and utilization strategy change from‘make full use of domestic and international resource and market'to‘maximize use of overseas resources,and reasonable protection of domestic resources';and(2) the mining‘going out'strategy shift to‘management of global resources' from‘acquisition or possession of overseas resources'.
出处
《资源科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第5期860-870,共11页
Resources Science
基金
国土资源部地质调查项目:"中国战略性矿产安全评价与支持系统建设"(12120114052901)
"矿产资源勘查开发格局及对策研究"(12120114093501)
关键词
矿产资源
格局
战略
全球
中国
mineral resources
pattern
strategy
World
China
