摘要
推进城镇化进程是我国"十二五"规划中非常重要的一项任务,而城镇化建设必然会带动相关产业的发展。钢铁行业作为基础工业,在城市基础设施、民用、商用房屋建设等领域中起到至关重要的作用。本文在Vensim PLE平台上,利用系统动力学(SD)原理建立仿真模型,分情景地研究了不同城镇化速度下的国内钢材需求趋势变化情况,找出钢材需求峰值水平。实验结果表明,在较为积极的政策环境下,我国钢材年需求量的峰值将会出现在2040年左右,钢材需求为10亿吨水平,对应时期的城镇化水平在72%-75%之间,和发达国家钢铁需求峰值出现时城镇化水平相似。较快的城镇化率会加快这一状态的出现,但不会改变需求的峰值水平。
The urbanization is an important task in Chinas '12th Five Year Plan',which will also bring about the development of related industries.As the mainstay of manufacture,iron and steel companies play a critical role in the fields of infrastructure,civil and commercial housing construction.In this paper,a simulation model is established based on system dynamics in Vensim PLE platform to forecast the trend of the demand of steel under different speed of urbanization.The peak of steel demand had also been found.The results showed that lOmillion tons per year would be the top level of the steel demand with 70%-75%of urbanization ratio,which was similar to the developed countries when their peak arrived.With incentives,the peak might get an earlier appearance,but the peak value showed no considerable change.
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2013年第S1期114-120,共7页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71172168)
关键词
城镇化
钢材需求
系统动力学
urbanization
steel demand
system dynamics
