摘要
本文根据海河平原水源不足的问题,采用系统分析的方法,探讨了农业供水的对策。提出的决策分析模型可望适用于不同大小的区域。通过实际资料的分析得出实行节流、管理与开源的具体方案及经济效益。分析成果表明推行节水灌溉技术与管理措施是完全可行的。在建立节流系统(包括管带与滴灌及调整耕作制度、作物布局)和加强水管理的基础上,实行开源引江、引黄,可大大缩减调水规模,降低开源工程投资,缓和工农与城乡供水的矛盾。
The present paper discusses agricultural water supply in the plain downstream of the Ha-ihe Basin, where water is unsatisfied with water demand. On the basis of water saving policy concerned with water development and management, the concept of an analytical model for decision making is suggested in this paper. The model can be used for either large area or small area. In this paper a large plain area of the Haihe Basin is taken as a case study.The mathematical model is obtained as follows: Where: Z = total profit (value of the objective function);B=benefits of water use;C = costs of water supply; = management level at e;I = water duty; A = irrigation acreage to be developed by using different flooding technigues, subscript of i;n = farming structure (cropping system);m = source of water (water supply combination);P = reliability of water supply. In this study, n and m are constants.There are many constraints involved in the model such as water amount, irrigation acreage, irrigation technique etc.The results show that water saving would be of the most important alternative to solve the problem of water shortage in the Haihe Plain. The net benefit of water supply through water saving techniques can be positive in a dry year. Enhancing the irrigation management should be emphasized on water saving. On the basis of water saving agricultural water resources can be supplemented through water diversion from the Changjiang (Yangtze River) to the Haihe Plain with a reasonable scale. Before the implementation of the water diversion a countermeasure of adjusting the cropping system of the Haihe Plain to mitigate water shortage is likely to be advisable.
出处
《自然资源学报》
1988年第3期250-261,共12页
Journal of Natural Resources
关键词
决策分析模型
节流
水管理
调水
供水效益
analytical model of decision making
water saving
water management
water diversion
profit of water supply
