摘要
商业银行在金融体系中具有举足轻重的地位。20世纪30年代的“大萧条”说明银行危机可能会带来灾难性的后果。因此,维护银行业稳定对经济发展至关重要。本文以1932—1936年全国华资银行作为研究对象,使用“白银危机”作为外生冲击,从储户角度出发,实证检验危机期间政府担保对于维护金融稳定的作用,并进一步分析银行本身经营状况对研究结论的影响。实证结果表明,政府担保显著降低了银行在危机期间遭遇挤兑的概率,受到政府担保的银行有更多的存款流入。进一步分析发现,危机期间,受到政府担保的银行投放了更多的信贷,有更高的资产增速,对经济复苏起到了推动作用,但这是以承担更大的经营风险为代价的,并且受到政府担保的银行在危机期间的这种表现并不具有持续性。异质性分析发现,受到中央政府担保的银行相对于受到地方政府担保的银行有更多的存款流入,对中小储户较多的银行,位于制度环境较好的地区的银行,政府担保对金融稳定的作用更大。
Commercial banks play a pivotal role in the financial system,and the“Great Depression”of the 1930s illustrated the potentially catastrophic consequences of banking crises.Therefore,maintaining the stability of the banking sector is crucial to economic development.In this paper,we take the Chinese banks in China from 1932 to 1936 as the research object,use the“Silver Crisis”as the exogenous shock,and empirically test the role of the government guarantee in maintaining financial stability during the crisis from the perspective of depositors,and further analyze the impact of the banks’own operating conditions on the research findings.The empirical results show that government guarantees significantly reduce the probability of a run on a bank during a crisis,and banks subject to government guarantees have more deposit inflows.Further analysis reveals that during the crisis,banks subject to government guarantees extended more credit,had higher asset growth rates,and contributed to economic recovery,but this came at the cost of greater operational risk,and this performance of banks subject to government guarantees was not sustainable during the crisis.Heterogeneity analysis finds that banks guaranteed by the central government have more deposit inflows relative to those guaranteed by local governments,and that government guarantees have a greater effect on financial stability for banks with more small and medium-sized depositors,located in regions with better institutional environments.
作者
张博
周涵
Zhang Bo;Zhou Han
出处
《公共财政研究》
2023年第6期29-43,共15页
Public Finance Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“法制、文化与金融二元体系的历史演进:典型事实、理论机制与经验证据”(72273075)
教育部人文社会科学青年项目“深化金融供给侧结构性改革背景下金融二元体系的历史起源与经济效应研究”(21YJC790156)阶段性研究成果
关键词
政府担保
储户挤兑
金融稳定
白银危机
Government Guarantees
Deposit Outflows
Financial Stability
Silver Crisis
