摘要
官员任期对地方政府行为以及地方治理水平的"倒U形"效应似乎已成为主流理论分析框架,但以往的实证文献未能对这类关系提供强而有力的实证依据。为了检验当前官员任期效应的主要实证观点是否受到具体研究特征的影响,本文选取了现有关于官员任期与辖区经济增长关系的实证文献进行荟萃回归分析。结果发现:官员任期与辖区经济增长关系的显著性受到不同研究特征的影响,尤其是"倒U形"效应的实证结果显著受到样本量、样本行政级别、官员类型、因变量指标选取、固定资产投资率变量选取等研究特征的影响。并且,体现官员任期与辖区经济增长之间呈"倒U形"关系的实证文献存在较为明显的发表偏倚问题。据此,本文认为该方向当前的研究结果在后续使用时须谨慎。后续研究应进一步从技术和理论两个层面提高研究的稳健性。
Governors’tenure and its impacts on local governing performance(i.e.,usually operationalized as local economic growth)have been central topics in the field of public policy and political economy.There have been several attempts by Chinese researchers to study Chinese governors’tenure and its economic or governmental consequences.Although the current literature pervasively speculates that the relationship between the governors’tenure and their governing performance is an"inverted-U shape",there are still a number of paradoxical findings for which there are no theoretical solutions to reconcile the conflicts.In order to test whether the research conclusions with regard to Chinese governors’tenure and its impacts on governing performance are shaped by the bias of the researchers’methods,the current study uses meta-analysis to systematically review the current literature.After a thorough search of published research,the current study identifies 16 empirical articles and constructs 59 linear models and 32 nonlinear models to attempt to answer the research question.The results demonstrate that the bias of the researchers’methods indeed alters the significance of their research conclusions.Specifically,the conclusions of those researchers who believe that the relationship between governors’tenure and local economic growth is represented by monotonous-linear growth can be significantly affected by the range of the years being studied,the number of areas being studied,the type of governors,and the number of control variables.The conclusions of those researchers who believe the relationship should be a monotonous-linear decline can be significantly altered by the sample size,the time range under study,the administrative level of the sample,the governor’s age,the model estimation method,and the number of control variables.The conclusions of researchers who believe that the relationship should be an inverted U-shape are significantly affected by the sample size,the administrative level of the sample,the type
作者
董志霖
闫泽华
DONG Zhilin;YAN Zehua(School of Economics,Peking University;Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences,Beijing University of Technology)
出处
《公共管理评论》
2020年第2期44-64,共21页
China Public Administration Review
