摘要
提出了在建立弹药可靠性分析故障树基础上,将其转化为贝叶斯网络,利用条件概率表发现节点间的概率因果关系。结合多因素模糊综合评判方法,由根节点概率得到根节点模糊故障重要度,根据分析结果找出影响弹药系统可靠性的薄弱环节,为可靠性实践活动提供决策依据。通过实例验证,该方法具有较好的合理性与实用性。
Based on the establishment of ammunition reliability analysis failure tree,we transformed it into Bayesian network,and the probabilistic causality among nodes was found by using conditional probability table.Combined with the multi-factor fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method,the importance of root node fuzzy fault was obtained from the probability of root node.According to the analysis results,we found out the weak links affecting the reliability of ammunition system,which provides decision-making basis for reliability practice activities.This paper given an example to verify the rationality and practicability of the method.
作者
宋一凡
贾云献
陈明华
SONG Yifan;JIA Yunxian;CHEN Minghua(Shijiazhuang Campus,Army Engineering University,Shijiazhuang 050003,China;Special Service Research Institute,Shijiazhuang 050003,China)
出处
《兵器装备工程学报》
CAS
北大核心
2020年第2期90-93,共4页
Journal of Ordnance Equipment Engineering
关键词
弹药
故障树分析
贝叶斯网络
模糊综合评判
故障重要度
ammunition
Fault Tree Analysis
Bayesian network
fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
fault importance
