摘要
我国牛羊肉价格波动规律与“猪周期”显然不同,同国际牛羊肉价格走势差异显著。深入分析国内牛羊肉价格运行特征及其原因,研判预警现阶段产业链供应链风险点,对优化牛羊肉产业扶持政策、增强市场有效供给、平稳市场价格波动等方面具有重要意义。本文系统梳理了2000年以来在“猪周期”、国际粮食危机和国际牛羊肉价格走势复杂等情况下国内牛羊肉价格波动特征。研究发现:成本驱动、产不足需、消费升级是国内牛羊肉价格长期趋涨的关键因素;产不足需是最直观原因,成本驱动是深层次原因,摆脱国内牛羊肉价格长期趋涨、居高运行局面,关键要推动降本增效,从根源上提升生产供应保障能力;消费升级过程中,消费者更加偏爱牛肉,扶持政策要向牛肉产业倾斜,以适应市场需求变化。另外,针对近年来牛肉自给率跌破国家目标水平(85%左右)并持续快速下降、羊肉国际进口地较为集中、国内生产集中度不高等产业链供应链风险,提出要不断夯实产业基础、着力推动降本增效、持续做好储备调控、加强市场预期管理、优化进口调节机制等政策建议。
The price fluctuation pattern of domestic beef and mutton is obviously different from the“pig cycle”,also is significantly different from the price trend of international beef and mutton.It is of great significance to improve the supporting policies of beef and mutton industry,enhance effective supply and stabilize price fluctuation,which lucubrates the price fluctuation characteristics and the special reasons of domestic beef and mutton and analyzes the risk points of industrial chain and supply chain at present stage.This article systematically summarizes the price fluctuation characteristics of domestic beef and mutton since 2000 under the“pig cycle”,the international food crisis and the complex price trend of international beef and mutton.It is found that cost-driven,insufficient production and consumption upgrading are key factors of the long-term rising of beef and mutton prices in China.Insufficient production is the most intuitive reason,while cost-driven is the deep reason,so that getting rid of the long-term rising and high running situation of domestic beef and mutton prices,the key is to promote cost reduction and efficiency,and improve the production and supply security capacity from the root.The consumers prefer beef more in the process of consumption upgrading,so that the support policies should be tilted towards the beef industry to adapt to the changes in market demand.In view of the risks of the industrial chain and supply chain,such as the self-sufficiency rate of beef which has fallen below the national target level(around 85%)and continues to decline,the high concentration of international import of mutton,and the low concentration of domestic production of cattle and sheep,the article puts forward some policy suggestions,such as continuously consolidating the industrial foundation,striving to reduce cost and increase efficiency,continuing to reserve regulation,strengthening the management of market expectations,and optimizing the import regulation mechanism.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2023年第11期100-104,214,共6页
Price:Theory & Practice
关键词
牛羊肉
价格波动
降本增效
集中度
beef and mutton
price fluctuation
redace ccosts and increase efficiency
concentration
