摘要
起义、革命的成因是比较政治研究的重要议题,但现有研究大多忽视了地域层次因素的影响。本文运用量化历史方法重建了晚明分省人均税负数据,并通过过程追踪,探究了地域不平等与明末起义的因果关联。研究发现,明代北方与东南以“税负倒挂”为枢纽的地域不平等是导致起义发生且集中于北方的一个重要因素。二者的税负差距产生于明王朝的军事地理格局,因经济社会韧性的差距而扩大,士绅群体的权力差距又使之固化和进一步扩大。日益深化的地域不平等把明王朝拖进国家军事-财政危机与对北方超负荷汲取的恶性循环,最终推动了北方的起义浪潮。上述发现为明末起义提供了更具整合性的因果图景,展现了在起义革命成因多层次分析框架中引入地域层次的意义。地域不平等概念蕴含的“找回疆域国家”和大国政治整合研究议程,亦或有助于推进比较政治学的创新与中国政治学的理论构建。
The causes of uprisings and revolutions are important topics in comparative political study,but most of the existing research ignores the influence of regional factors.This paper uses quantitative historical methods to reconstruct the data of per capita tax of different provinces in the late Ming Dynasty,and,through process tracing,explores the causal mechanism between regional inequality and the uprisings at the end of the Ming Dynasty.It is found that the geographical taxation inequality between the north and the southeast of China in the Ming Dynasty is an important factor that led to the uprising and its concentration in the north.The tax gap between the two regions originated from the military deployment of the Ming Dynasty,and became widened due to disparity in economic and social resilience.The gap was further widened and fixed by the different powers of the gentry groups of the two regions.Deepening geographical inequality dragged the Ming Dynasty into a vicious cycle of national military and financial crisis only to be relieved by over-exacting the north,which eventually fueled the wave of uprisings in the north.The above findings provide a more integrated picture of the causes of the uprisings at the end of the Ming Dynasty,showing the significance of introducing regional dimension into the analytic framework.The research agenda of“bring country back in”and the political integration of great power implied by the concept of regional inequality may also help to promote the innovation of comparative politics and the theoretical construction of Chinese politics.
作者
尚俊颖
何增科
Shang Junying;He Zengke(School of Government,Peking University;Research Center for Chinese Politics,Peking University)
出处
《开放时代》
北大核心
2023年第3期107-124,8,共19页
Open Times
关键词
起义
地域不平等
税负
明末
革命理论
uprising
regional inequality
tax
end of the Ming Dynasty
theory of revolution
