摘要
随着智能电网建设的高速发展和构建新型电力系统的必然趋势以及电力体制的进一步深化改革,我国电力市场化的发展比之前任何一个阶段都要迅猛。目前的政策趋势是要深化电力市场改革,让市场机制去作用而不能仅仅靠政府计划管制。于是基于需求响应的实时电价机制便孕育而生,其促进了电力用户的参与响应,保障了电网的安全稳定运行。本文针对实时电价的需求响应,进行了以下研究:首先,介绍了课题研究背景、意义、现状以及需求响应的相关理论。其次,分析了常见实时电价类型和需求价格弹性原理。根据用户的历史用电数据进行分析,并对用户的用电响应行为进行研究,建立了基于梯度下降法的用户需求响应回归模型,预测出用户在该机制下参与需求响应的需求量。此模型利用回归的思想,对用户自弹性、交叉弹性系数进行分析,以此来模仿在动态电价机制下用户的用电行为。而后将美国某地区的真实数据导入模型,预测结果和实际结果误差处于合理范围内,验证了该模型的可行性与真实性。
With the rapid development of smart grid construction and the further reform of electric power system,the development of the commercialization and marketization of electric power is faster than that in any previous stage.One of the current policy trends is to deepen the reform of the electricity market and let the market function,not just let the government plan control.Real-time electricity pricing based on demand response was conceived.It can promote the participation of power users and guide the safe and stable operation of power grid.In this paper,the demand response of real-time electricity price is studied.It introduces the background,significance,current situation and relevant theories of demand response.Then,the common types of real-time electricity prices and principle of price elasticity of demand are analyzed.Based on the analysis of users’historical electricity consumption data,this paper studies the users’electricity consumption response behavior,establishes a regression model of user demand response based on gradient descent method,and predicts the optimal demand of users participating in demand response under this mechanism.This model utilizes the idea of regression to analyze the user’s self elasticity and cross elasticity coefficients,in order to simulate the user’s electricity consumption behavior under the dynamic electricity pricing mechanism.The real data of a region in the United States is imported into the model,and the error between the predicted results and the actual results is not large,which verifies the feasibility and authenticity of the model.
作者
何显佳
杜欣慧
巩凡逸
HE Xian-jia;DU Xin-hui;GONG Fan-yi(Department of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030000,China)
出处
《新一代信息技术》
2023年第16期6-13,共8页
New Generation of Information Technology
关键词
实时电价
需求响应
回归模型
用电响应行为
real-time electricity price
demand response
regression model
user response behavior
