摘要
石油供求特点决定了国际石油市场存在高油价均衡与低油价均衡交替出现。作为世界经济增长的派生需求,世界经济实际增速持续低于预期通常会带来国际油价从高位均衡向低位均衡转换。当前,国际油价仍未摆脱2015年以来的低位均衡状态,尽管乌克兰危机带来国际油价短期上涨,却因加大世界经济下滑压力,反而支撑了国际油价的低位均衡状态。非洲地区石油是全球石油供给的重要组成部分,但是自20世纪70年代以来,受资源国政策调整、石油生产成本和风险加大影响,非洲地区石油资源开发整体相对缓慢。而在当前市场环境下,受跨国石油公司收缩石油上游投资、石油资源大国增产需求放大影响,非洲地区石油稳产压力进一步加大。不过,受美西方进一步加大对俄制裁影响,石油市场可能出现阶段性高油价,或有可能带动非洲地区页岩油资源获得商业性开发。
The characteristics of oil supply and demand determine the alternate appearance of high oil price equilibrium and low oil price equilibrium in the international oil market.As the derivative demand of world economic growth,the real growth of world economy is consistently lower than expected,which usually leads to the conversion of international oil price from high equilibrium to low equilibrium.At present,the international oil price has not escaped the low equilibrium state since 2015.Although the Ukraine crisis has brought a short-term increase in international oil price,it has further supported the low equilibrium state of international oil price by increasing the downward pressure of the world economic growth.African oil is an important part of global oil supply.However,since the 1970s,the development of African oil resources has been relatively slow due to the policy adjustment of resource rich countries and the increase of oil production costs and risks.However,under the current market environment,the pressure of stabilizing oil production in Africa will be further increased due to the contraction of upstream oil investment by multinational oil companies and the enlarged demand of oil resource countries to increase production.However,due to the impact of the United States and the West further increasing sanctions against Russia,the possible periodic high oil prices in the oil market may lead to the commercial development of shale oil resources in Africa.
作者
刘冬
Liu Dong(Institute of West-Asian and African Studies of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and China-Africa Institute,Beijing 100101)
出处
《中国非洲学刊》
2023年第3期81-99,158,共20页
JOURNAL OF CHINA-AFRICA STUDIES
关键词
国际油价
长周期波动
非洲石油资源开发
乌克兰危机
international oil price
long cycle fluctuation
oil resources development in Africa
Ukraine crisis
