该文讨论了如何应用概率安全评价(PSA)方法对核电站的维修风险进行管理,给出维修风险管理的4个阶段,并重点对其中的短期维修计划制订中的风险管理进行了详细分析,包括实施过程、评价的风险指标以及可以采取的一些风险管理行动,通过实际...该文讨论了如何应用概率安全评价(PSA)方法对核电站的维修风险进行管理,给出维修风险管理的4个阶段,并重点对其中的短期维修计划制订中的风险管理进行了详细分析,包括实施过程、评价的风险指标以及可以采取的一些风险管理行动,通过实际案例介绍了所开发的M RM(m a in tenance risk m on itor)系统。应用PSA方法,可以对电站各种风险来源以及缓解系统的能力进行综合分析,从而得到定量化的、全面的风险信息,实现对电站维修风险的有效控制和管理,避免出现高风险配置状态。展开更多
A probabilistic framework for durability assessment of concrete structures in marine environments was proposed in terms of reliability and sensitivity analysis, which takes into account the uncertainties under the env...A probabilistic framework for durability assessment of concrete structures in marine environments was proposed in terms of reliability and sensitivity analysis, which takes into account the uncertainties under the environmental,material, structural and executional conditions. A time-dependent probabilistic model of chloride ingress was established first to consider the variations in various governing parameters, such as the chloride concentration,chloride diffusion coefficient, and age factor. Then the Nataf transformation was adopted to transform the nonnormal random variables from the original physical space into the independent standard Normal space. After that the durability limit state function and its gradient vector with respect to the original physical parameters were derived analytically, based on which the first-order reliability method was adopted to analyze the time-dependent reliability and parametric sensitivity of concrete structures in marine environments. The accuracy of the proposed method was verified by comparing with the second-order reliability method and the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the influences of environmental conditions, material properties, structural parameters and execution conditions on the time-dependent reliability of concrete structures in marine environments were also investigated. The proposed probabilistic framework can be implemented in the decision-making algorithm for the maintenance and repair of deteriorating concrete structures in marine environments.展开更多
Cost reduction in electric power generation is a major management concern, and it is therefore necessary to reduce maintenance expenses while upholding plant reliability. A maintenance optimization system 'FREEDOM...Cost reduction in electric power generation is a major management concern, and it is therefore necessary to reduce maintenance expenses while upholding plant reliability. A maintenance optimization system 'FREEDOM', which uses RBM technique, DCF (discounted cash flow) and NPV (net present value) calculation functions, has been newly developed. This system probabilistically evaluates the lifetime of boiler and turbine and quantitatively calculates the risk defined as the cumulative probability of failure multiplied by the consequence of failure. Economically optimized timing of inspection and alternative countermeasure such as repair and replacement are then recommended. This system has already been applied to seven plants in Japan, and its effectiveness has been confirmed.展开更多
文摘该文讨论了如何应用概率安全评价(PSA)方法对核电站的维修风险进行管理,给出维修风险管理的4个阶段,并重点对其中的短期维修计划制订中的风险管理进行了详细分析,包括实施过程、评价的风险指标以及可以采取的一些风险管理行动,通过实际案例介绍了所开发的M RM(m a in tenance risk m on itor)系统。应用PSA方法,可以对电站各种风险来源以及缓解系统的能力进行综合分析,从而得到定量化的、全面的风险信息,实现对电站维修风险的有效控制和管理,避免出现高风险配置状态。
基金financially supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51168003,51368006 and51478125)the Major Project of Guangxi Natural Science Foundation(Grant No.2012GXNSFEA053002)+1 种基金Program for Distinguished Scholars and High-Level Innovative Research Team of Guangxi Higher Education(Grant No.GJR-2013-38)the Guangxi Science and Technology Development Program(Grant No.1377001-11)
文摘A probabilistic framework for durability assessment of concrete structures in marine environments was proposed in terms of reliability and sensitivity analysis, which takes into account the uncertainties under the environmental,material, structural and executional conditions. A time-dependent probabilistic model of chloride ingress was established first to consider the variations in various governing parameters, such as the chloride concentration,chloride diffusion coefficient, and age factor. Then the Nataf transformation was adopted to transform the nonnormal random variables from the original physical space into the independent standard Normal space. After that the durability limit state function and its gradient vector with respect to the original physical parameters were derived analytically, based on which the first-order reliability method was adopted to analyze the time-dependent reliability and parametric sensitivity of concrete structures in marine environments. The accuracy of the proposed method was verified by comparing with the second-order reliability method and the Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, the influences of environmental conditions, material properties, structural parameters and execution conditions on the time-dependent reliability of concrete structures in marine environments were also investigated. The proposed probabilistic framework can be implemented in the decision-making algorithm for the maintenance and repair of deteriorating concrete structures in marine environments.
文摘Cost reduction in electric power generation is a major management concern, and it is therefore necessary to reduce maintenance expenses while upholding plant reliability. A maintenance optimization system 'FREEDOM', which uses RBM technique, DCF (discounted cash flow) and NPV (net present value) calculation functions, has been newly developed. This system probabilistically evaluates the lifetime of boiler and turbine and quantitatively calculates the risk defined as the cumulative probability of failure multiplied by the consequence of failure. Economically optimized timing of inspection and alternative countermeasure such as repair and replacement are then recommended. This system has already been applied to seven plants in Japan, and its effectiveness has been confirmed.
