Because of the uncertainty and randomness of wind speed, wind power has characteristics such as nonlinearity and multiple frequencies. Accurate prediction of wind power is one effective means of improving wind power i...Because of the uncertainty and randomness of wind speed, wind power has characteristics such as nonlinearity and multiple frequencies. Accurate prediction of wind power is one effective means of improving wind power integration. Because the traditional single model cannot fully characterize the fluctuating characteristics of wind power, scholars have attempted to build other prediction models based on empirical mode decomposition(EMD) or ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) to tackle this problem. However, the prediction accuracy of these models is affected by modal aliasing and illusive components. Aimed at these defects, this paper proposes a multi-frequency combination prediction model based on variational mode decomposition(VMD). We use a back propagation neural network(BPNN),autoregressive moving average(ARMA)model, and least square support vector machine(LS-SVM) to predict high, intermediate,and low frequency components,respectively. Based on the predicted values of each component, the BPNN is applied to combine them into a final wind power prediction value.Finally,the prediction performance of the single prediction models(ARMA,BPNN and LS-SVM)and the decomposition prediction models(EMD and EEMD) are used to compare with the proposed VMD model according to the evaluation indices such as average absolute error, mean square error,and root mean square error to validate its feasibility and accuracy. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed VMD model is higher.展开更多
对于目前电力系统中低频振荡参数辨识中的噪声干扰和精度问题,提出了一种新的提取低频振荡模态参数的方法,将快速独立分量分析技术(fast independent component analysis,Fast ICA)和总体最小二乘-旋转不变技术(total least squares-est...对于目前电力系统中低频振荡参数辨识中的噪声干扰和精度问题,提出了一种新的提取低频振荡模态参数的方法,将快速独立分量分析技术(fast independent component analysis,Fast ICA)和总体最小二乘-旋转不变技术(total least squares-estimation of signal parameters via rotational invariance technique, TLS-ESPRIT)联合起来。首先运用FastICA技术对含有噪声的电力系统低频振荡广域测量信号进行预处理而达到降噪效果,而后将处理后的信号作为新的输入信号利用TLS-ESPRIT算法进行估计辨识,从而得到各个模态特征参数。通过对理想信号、EPRI-36机系统和电网实测信号仿真验证了所提方法的有效可行性,不但能够有效抑制噪声并准确地辨识低频振荡参数,而且在抗干扰性和提取精度上与传统辨识方法相比来说是有一定优势的。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51507141)the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFC0401409)the Shaanxi provincial education office fund (No. 17JK0547)
文摘Because of the uncertainty and randomness of wind speed, wind power has characteristics such as nonlinearity and multiple frequencies. Accurate prediction of wind power is one effective means of improving wind power integration. Because the traditional single model cannot fully characterize the fluctuating characteristics of wind power, scholars have attempted to build other prediction models based on empirical mode decomposition(EMD) or ensemble empirical mode decomposition(EEMD) to tackle this problem. However, the prediction accuracy of these models is affected by modal aliasing and illusive components. Aimed at these defects, this paper proposes a multi-frequency combination prediction model based on variational mode decomposition(VMD). We use a back propagation neural network(BPNN),autoregressive moving average(ARMA)model, and least square support vector machine(LS-SVM) to predict high, intermediate,and low frequency components,respectively. Based on the predicted values of each component, the BPNN is applied to combine them into a final wind power prediction value.Finally,the prediction performance of the single prediction models(ARMA,BPNN and LS-SVM)and the decomposition prediction models(EMD and EEMD) are used to compare with the proposed VMD model according to the evaluation indices such as average absolute error, mean square error,and root mean square error to validate its feasibility and accuracy. The results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed VMD model is higher.
文摘对于目前电力系统中低频振荡参数辨识中的噪声干扰和精度问题,提出了一种新的提取低频振荡模态参数的方法,将快速独立分量分析技术(fast independent component analysis,Fast ICA)和总体最小二乘-旋转不变技术(total least squares-estimation of signal parameters via rotational invariance technique, TLS-ESPRIT)联合起来。首先运用FastICA技术对含有噪声的电力系统低频振荡广域测量信号进行预处理而达到降噪效果,而后将处理后的信号作为新的输入信号利用TLS-ESPRIT算法进行估计辨识,从而得到各个模态特征参数。通过对理想信号、EPRI-36机系统和电网实测信号仿真验证了所提方法的有效可行性,不但能够有效抑制噪声并准确地辨识低频振荡参数,而且在抗干扰性和提取精度上与传统辨识方法相比来说是有一定优势的。
