针对多阶段任务系统(phased-mission system,PMS)任务可靠性受概率型共因失效(probabilistic common cause failure,PCCF)影响的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,BN)的PCCF-PMS分析模型。首先,研究基于BN的PMS表征方法,...针对多阶段任务系统(phased-mission system,PMS)任务可靠性受概率型共因失效(probabilistic common cause failure,PCCF)影响的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,BN)的PCCF-PMS分析模型。首先,研究基于BN的PMS表征方法,建立不考虑共因失效的PMS基础BN模型,即PMS-BN。其次,构建共因空间节点,并研究在共因空间节点影响下系统模型参数的修正方法。最后,引入共因节点对PMS-BN模型进行扩展,实现考虑共因失效影响的PMS可靠性量化分析。以地球同步轨道卫星的首次变轨任务为例说明所提模型的正确性,分析结果表明,共因失效问题对于PMS的可靠性存在显著影响。PCCF-PMS模型能够综合处理受概率型与确定型共因失效影响的PMS可靠性分析问题。所提模型适用于共因事件间呈独立、互斥、统计相关等统计关系的情况,且网络模型规模可控。展开更多
为了解决航天发射场复杂可维修多阶段任务系统(phased-mission system,PMS)的任务可靠性评估问题,依据考虑维修的多阶段任务系统(phased-mission system considering maintenance,PMSCM)理论和蒙特卡罗方法,基于系统特殊的任务成功定义...为了解决航天发射场复杂可维修多阶段任务系统(phased-mission system,PMS)的任务可靠性评估问题,依据考虑维修的多阶段任务系统(phased-mission system considering maintenance,PMSCM)理论和蒙特卡罗方法,基于系统特殊的任务成功定义规则,通过任务阶段的形式化描述与零部件的虚节点处理,建立可靠性评估仿真模型。将模型应用于航天发射场垂直总装厂房液压系统,成功分析了系统多阶段任务的可靠性均值、方差和置信区间。仿真结果表明:该模型能够找出系统的关键部件,为垂直总装厂房及航天发射场系统总体任务进行可靠性预计、分配和评估提供重要参考和决策支持。展开更多
This paper presents a simplified Markov model to evaluate the reliability of phased-mission system(PMS). The time cost and storage requirement are very huge for traditional Markov model to analyze the PMS reliability ...This paper presents a simplified Markov model to evaluate the reliability of phased-mission system(PMS). The time cost and storage requirement are very huge for traditional Markov model to analyze the PMS reliability as the number of components increases to a large scale. The states merging method proposed in this paper can account for the PMS with subsystems consisting of identical components, and similar PMSs are common in real-world systems. The simplified Markov model by states merging has smaller number of system states, compared with the traditional one. Furthermore, for the above subsystems, the size of our model increases only linearly as the number of components increases, while the size of the traditional model exponentially increases.Finally, the effectiveness and correctness of our approach are analyzed by comparing with the traditional Markov method.展开更多
This paper presents a modeling method by stochastic Petri net for reliability analysis of phased mission system( PMS) with phase backup. The model consisting of petri nets,depicts the system behaviors of unit level,sy...This paper presents a modeling method by stochastic Petri net for reliability analysis of phased mission system( PMS) with phase backup. The model consisting of petri nets,depicts the system behaviors of unit level,system logic level and phase level. Guard functions of petri nets are used to avoid modeling complexity and make the model flexible to different reliability logical structures. It was shown that the time redundancy within phase and from phase backup for PMS can both be described by use of the proposed model.展开更多
文摘针对多阶段任务系统(phased-mission system,PMS)任务可靠性受概率型共因失效(probabilistic common cause failure,PCCF)影响的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,BN)的PCCF-PMS分析模型。首先,研究基于BN的PMS表征方法,建立不考虑共因失效的PMS基础BN模型,即PMS-BN。其次,构建共因空间节点,并研究在共因空间节点影响下系统模型参数的修正方法。最后,引入共因节点对PMS-BN模型进行扩展,实现考虑共因失效影响的PMS可靠性量化分析。以地球同步轨道卫星的首次变轨任务为例说明所提模型的正确性,分析结果表明,共因失效问题对于PMS的可靠性存在显著影响。PCCF-PMS模型能够综合处理受概率型与确定型共因失效影响的PMS可靠性分析问题。所提模型适用于共因事件间呈独立、互斥、统计相关等统计关系的情况,且网络模型规模可控。
文摘为了解决航天发射场复杂可维修多阶段任务系统(phased-mission system,PMS)的任务可靠性评估问题,依据考虑维修的多阶段任务系统(phased-mission system considering maintenance,PMSCM)理论和蒙特卡罗方法,基于系统特殊的任务成功定义规则,通过任务阶段的形式化描述与零部件的虚节点处理,建立可靠性评估仿真模型。将模型应用于航天发射场垂直总装厂房液压系统,成功分析了系统多阶段任务的可靠性均值、方差和置信区间。仿真结果表明:该模型能够找出系统的关键部件,为垂直总装厂房及航天发射场系统总体任务进行可靠性预计、分配和评估提供重要参考和决策支持。
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71401172)
文摘This paper presents a simplified Markov model to evaluate the reliability of phased-mission system(PMS). The time cost and storage requirement are very huge for traditional Markov model to analyze the PMS reliability as the number of components increases to a large scale. The states merging method proposed in this paper can account for the PMS with subsystems consisting of identical components, and similar PMSs are common in real-world systems. The simplified Markov model by states merging has smaller number of system states, compared with the traditional one. Furthermore, for the above subsystems, the size of our model increases only linearly as the number of components increases, while the size of the traditional model exponentially increases.Finally, the effectiveness and correctness of our approach are analyzed by comparing with the traditional Markov method.
基金Nationd Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71671185)
文摘This paper presents a modeling method by stochastic Petri net for reliability analysis of phased mission system( PMS) with phase backup. The model consisting of petri nets,depicts the system behaviors of unit level,system logic level and phase level. Guard functions of petri nets are used to avoid modeling complexity and make the model flexible to different reliability logical structures. It was shown that the time redundancy within phase and from phase backup for PMS can both be described by use of the proposed model.
