Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks' credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positiv...Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks' credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks' credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks' credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks' credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.展开更多
P2P网贷(peer to peer lending)是一种通过网络实现点对点借贷的交易模式,一般由网贷平台提供交易场所,借款需求经过审核后被放置在平台上,由出借人选择放贷。在国外,这种交易模式因为"脱媒"(disintermediation)节约了交易成...P2P网贷(peer to peer lending)是一种通过网络实现点对点借贷的交易模式,一般由网贷平台提供交易场所,借款需求经过审核后被放置在平台上,由出借人选择放贷。在国外,这种交易模式因为"脱媒"(disintermediation)节约了交易成本,受到一定程度的追捧。自2011年以来,P2P在中国经历了爆发式增长,则是因为其通过变型满足了正规金融之外的投融资需求。展开更多
In the past decade,online Peer-to-Peer(P2P)lending platforms have transformed the lending industry,which has been historically dominated by commercial banks.Information technology breakthroughs such as big data-based ...In the past decade,online Peer-to-Peer(P2P)lending platforms have transformed the lending industry,which has been historically dominated by commercial banks.Information technology breakthroughs such as big data-based financial technologies(Fintech)have been identified as important disruptive driving forces for this paradigm shift.In this paper,we take an information economics perspective to investigate how big data affects the transformation of the lending industry.By identifying how signaling and search costs are reduced by big data analytics for credit risk management of P2P lending,we discuss how information asymmetry is reduced in the big data era.Rooted in the lending business,we propose a theory on the economics of big data and outline a number of research opportunities and challenging issues.展开更多
This paper focuses on how to use consortium blockchain to improve the regulation of peer-to-peer(P2 P) lending market. The partial decentralized consortium blockchain with limited pre-set nodes can well improve transp...This paper focuses on how to use consortium blockchain to improve the regulation of peer-to-peer(P2 P) lending market. The partial decentralized consortium blockchain with limited pre-set nodes can well improve transparency and security, which is suitable for financial regulation. Considering irregularities of the P2P lending market, the Hyperledger-based Peer-to-Peer Lending System(HyperP2PLS) is proposed. First elaborate the application scenario and business logic of the system, where a national P2P Lending Trading Center will be established to integrate all transactions and information of P2P lending market. Then construct the system architecture consisting of the blockchain network, HTTP server, and applications. The algorithm of implementation process and the web application for users have been well illustrated. The performance analysis shows that HyperP2PLS can guarantee the reliability, safety, transparency and efficiency.展开更多
Fintechs are believed to help expand credit access to underserved consumers without taking on additional risk.We compare the performance efficiency of LendingClub’s unsecured personal loans with similar loans origina...Fintechs are believed to help expand credit access to underserved consumers without taking on additional risk.We compare the performance efficiency of LendingClub’s unsecured personal loans with similar loans originated by banks.Using stochastic frontier estimation,we decompose the observed nonperforming loan(NPL)ratio into three components:the best-practice minimum NPL ratio,the excess NPL ratio,and a statistical noise,the former two of which reflect the lender’s inherent credit risk and lending inefficiency,respectively.As of 2013 and 2016,we find that the higher NPL ratios at the largest banks are driven by inherent credit risk,rather than lending inefficiency.Smaller banks are less efficient.In addition,as of 2013,LendingClub’s observed NPL ratio and lending efficiency were in line with banks with similar lending volume.However,its lending efficiency improved significantly from 2013 to 2016.As of 2016,LendingClub’s performance resembled the largest banks–consistent with an argument that its increased use of alternative data and AI/ML may have improved its credit risk assessment capacity above and beyond its peers using traditional approaches.Furthermore,we also investigate capital market incentives for lenders to take credit risk.Market value regression using the NPL ratio suggests that market discipline provides incentives to make less risky consumer loans.However,the regression using two decomposed components(inherent credit risk and lending inefficiency)tells a deeper underlying story:market value is significantly positively related to inherent credit risk at most banks,whereas it is significantly negatively related to lending inefficiency at most banks.Market discipline appears to reward exposure to inherent credit risk and punish inefficient lending.展开更多
Establishing a modern central banking system in China necessitates the deployment of a novel suite of monetary policy instruments and unencumbering of the channels through which these policies are transmitted.A critic...Establishing a modern central banking system in China necessitates the deployment of a novel suite of monetary policy instruments and unencumbering of the channels through which these policies are transmitted.A critical aspect of evaluating the soundness and efficacy of monetary policy is to examine its capacity for tempering non-stationary volatility in the bond market.We use a synthetic difference in differences model(SynthDid),which draws upon panel data from eight countries spanning October 2011 to June 2022 period,to accurately determine the efficiency of the transmission of these monetary policy instruments.The Medium-term Lending Facility(MLF)can mitigate fluctuations in both medium-and long-term bond markets.Implementing a unified lending cycle of one year and expanding MLF collateral enhance the transmission efficiency of the newly established monetary policy instruments to the bond market.Additionally,the utilization of the Standing Lending Facility(SLF)substantially reduces the risk associated with short-and medium-term bond markets.Nevertheless,the efficacy of monetary policy transmission via different instruments varies in different periods.展开更多
The disparity in credit access between large firms and small and medium-sized enterprises contributes to the prevalence of shadow banking activities,where large,nonfinancial firms with high credit ratings have become ...The disparity in credit access between large firms and small and medium-sized enterprises contributes to the prevalence of shadow banking activities,where large,nonfinancial firms with high credit ratings have become new financial intermediaries.These activities vary geographically and are afected significantly by collateral monetary policy.This paper examines the effect of collateral monetary policy,its reform,and regional financial development characteristics on large firms'shadow banking activities,with a focus on the medium-term lending facility(MLF),the primary collateral monetary policy instrument in China.The results indicate that the MLF encouraged large firms'shadow banking activity.However,the MLF reform in 2018 mitigated this effect by broadening the range of acceptable collateral.Regional financial development,such as a higher number of bank branches around firms,facilitated large firms'shadow banking activities and amplified the MLF's stimulating effect.In contrast,regional advancements in digital finance and market development limited both shadow banking activities and MLF's impact.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Project Nos.71032006 and 71372167)
文摘Using data for Chinese commercial banks from 2000 to 2014, this paper examines the effects of economic policy uncertainty(EPU) on banks' credit risks and lending decisions. The results reveal significantly positive connections among EPU and non-performing loan ratios, loan concentrations and the normal loan migration rate. This indicates that EPU increases banks' credit risks and negatively influences loan size, especially for joint-equity banks. Given the increasing credit risks generated by EPU, banks can improve operational performance by reducing loan sizes. Further research indicates that the effects of EPU on banks' credit risks and lending decisions are moderated by the marketization level, with financial depth moderating the effect on banks' credit risks and strengthening it on lending decisions.
文摘P2P网贷(peer to peer lending)是一种通过网络实现点对点借贷的交易模式,一般由网贷平台提供交易场所,借款需求经过审核后被放置在平台上,由出借人选择放贷。在国外,这种交易模式因为"脱媒"(disintermediation)节约了交易成本,受到一定程度的追捧。自2011年以来,P2P在中国经历了爆发式增长,则是因为其通过变型满足了正规金融之外的投融资需求。
文摘In the past decade,online Peer-to-Peer(P2P)lending platforms have transformed the lending industry,which has been historically dominated by commercial banks.Information technology breakthroughs such as big data-based financial technologies(Fintech)have been identified as important disruptive driving forces for this paradigm shift.In this paper,we take an information economics perspective to investigate how big data affects the transformation of the lending industry.By identifying how signaling and search costs are reduced by big data analytics for credit risk management of P2P lending,we discuss how information asymmetry is reduced in the big data era.Rooted in the lending business,we propose a theory on the economics of big data and outline a number of research opportunities and challenging issues.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.71872020 and No.71402008the Corporate Finance and Innovation Development Research Center in BUPT
文摘This paper focuses on how to use consortium blockchain to improve the regulation of peer-to-peer(P2 P) lending market. The partial decentralized consortium blockchain with limited pre-set nodes can well improve transparency and security, which is suitable for financial regulation. Considering irregularities of the P2P lending market, the Hyperledger-based Peer-to-Peer Lending System(HyperP2PLS) is proposed. First elaborate the application scenario and business logic of the system, where a national P2P Lending Trading Center will be established to integrate all transactions and information of P2P lending market. Then construct the system architecture consisting of the blockchain network, HTTP server, and applications. The algorithm of implementation process and the web application for users have been well illustrated. The performance analysis shows that HyperP2PLS can guarantee the reliability, safety, transparency and efficiency.
文摘Fintechs are believed to help expand credit access to underserved consumers without taking on additional risk.We compare the performance efficiency of LendingClub’s unsecured personal loans with similar loans originated by banks.Using stochastic frontier estimation,we decompose the observed nonperforming loan(NPL)ratio into three components:the best-practice minimum NPL ratio,the excess NPL ratio,and a statistical noise,the former two of which reflect the lender’s inherent credit risk and lending inefficiency,respectively.As of 2013 and 2016,we find that the higher NPL ratios at the largest banks are driven by inherent credit risk,rather than lending inefficiency.Smaller banks are less efficient.In addition,as of 2013,LendingClub’s observed NPL ratio and lending efficiency were in line with banks with similar lending volume.However,its lending efficiency improved significantly from 2013 to 2016.As of 2016,LendingClub’s performance resembled the largest banks–consistent with an argument that its increased use of alternative data and AI/ML may have improved its credit risk assessment capacity above and beyond its peers using traditional approaches.Furthermore,we also investigate capital market incentives for lenders to take credit risk.Market value regression using the NPL ratio suggests that market discipline provides incentives to make less risky consumer loans.However,the regression using two decomposed components(inherent credit risk and lending inefficiency)tells a deeper underlying story:market value is significantly positively related to inherent credit risk at most banks,whereas it is significantly negatively related to lending inefficiency at most banks.Market discipline appears to reward exposure to inherent credit risk and punish inefficient lending.
基金Supported by the Youth Innovation Team of Shaanxi Universities(2020-68)Shaanxi Province Qin Chuangyuan“Scientist+Engineer”Team Building Project(2022KXJ-007)Xidian University School of Economics and Management Research Innovation Practice Seed Fund(YJSJ23008)。
文摘Establishing a modern central banking system in China necessitates the deployment of a novel suite of monetary policy instruments and unencumbering of the channels through which these policies are transmitted.A critical aspect of evaluating the soundness and efficacy of monetary policy is to examine its capacity for tempering non-stationary volatility in the bond market.We use a synthetic difference in differences model(SynthDid),which draws upon panel data from eight countries spanning October 2011 to June 2022 period,to accurately determine the efficiency of the transmission of these monetary policy instruments.The Medium-term Lending Facility(MLF)can mitigate fluctuations in both medium-and long-term bond markets.Implementing a unified lending cycle of one year and expanding MLF collateral enhance the transmission efficiency of the newly established monetary policy instruments to the bond market.Additionally,the utilization of the Standing Lending Facility(SLF)substantially reduces the risk associated with short-and medium-term bond markets.Nevertheless,the efficacy of monetary policy transmission via different instruments varies in different periods.
基金support from the National Social Science Fund of China(No.23AZD024)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71973053).
文摘The disparity in credit access between large firms and small and medium-sized enterprises contributes to the prevalence of shadow banking activities,where large,nonfinancial firms with high credit ratings have become new financial intermediaries.These activities vary geographically and are afected significantly by collateral monetary policy.This paper examines the effect of collateral monetary policy,its reform,and regional financial development characteristics on large firms'shadow banking activities,with a focus on the medium-term lending facility(MLF),the primary collateral monetary policy instrument in China.The results indicate that the MLF encouraged large firms'shadow banking activity.However,the MLF reform in 2018 mitigated this effect by broadening the range of acceptable collateral.Regional financial development,such as a higher number of bank branches around firms,facilitated large firms'shadow banking activities and amplified the MLF's stimulating effect.In contrast,regional advancements in digital finance and market development limited both shadow banking activities and MLF's impact.
