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云南近50年极端气温及降水事件变化特征与区域气候变暖的关系 被引量:28
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作者 罗燕 田永丽 +1 位作者 戴敏 陈新梅 《云南大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2015年第6期870-877,共8页
利用1961—2008年云南125个观测站的逐日观测资料,采用百分位值法定义了云南极端气温、降水事件阈值,分析了极端条件下的高温、低温和强降水的分布特征、气候变化趋势及其与区域气候变暖的关系.结果表明,云南极端高温阈值大于36℃的中... 利用1961—2008年云南125个观测站的逐日观测资料,采用百分位值法定义了云南极端气温、降水事件阈值,分析了极端条件下的高温、低温和强降水的分布特征、气候变化趋势及其与区域气候变暖的关系.结果表明,云南极端高温阈值大于36℃的中心分别在低海拔的金沙江河谷、红河河谷及昭通和西双版纳的部分河谷地区.全省大部分地区极端高温频数具有明显的年代际变化特征.极端低温阈值小于-10℃的低值中心则集中位于迪庆州北部.大部分地区极端低温频数呈明显减少趋势.极端强降水阈值超过40 mm的大值中心有3个,分别位于玉溪南部—红河南部、普洱南部和曲靖南部.年平均气温与极端高温频数为正相关关系,与极端低温频数为显著的负相关关系,与极端强降水频数的相关关系不明显. 展开更多
关键词 云南 极端高温 极端低温 极端强降水 气候变化
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台风“温比亚”(1818)造成山东极端强降水的成因分析 被引量:28
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作者 郑怡 杨晓霞 孙晶 《海洋气象学报》 2019年第1期106-115,共10页
利用气象卫星、多普勒天气雷达、区域自动气象观测站及常规气象观测资料,结合NCEP/NCAR逐日6 h再分析资料(0. 25°×0. 25°),对2018年18号台风"温比亚"及其残骸长时间影响山东引发特大暴雨的成因进行分析发现:1... 利用气象卫星、多普勒天气雷达、区域自动气象观测站及常规气象观测资料,结合NCEP/NCAR逐日6 h再分析资料(0. 25°×0. 25°),对2018年18号台风"温比亚"及其残骸长时间影响山东引发特大暴雨的成因进行分析发现:1)此次极端降水可分为三个阶段,分别受台风外围螺旋云系、倒槽和变性后温带气旋冷锋影响,其中弱冷空气与台风倒槽相互作用对强降水的产生和维持起到了重要作用。2)"温比亚"缓慢北上过程中,强降水落区从台风东侧逆时针转至其北部倒槽附近,并逐渐远离台风中心,台风强度逐渐减弱。3)冷空气在对流层中层与台风倒槽相互作用,中层冷暖平流增强形成锋区,斜压不稳定能量增强,暖湿空气在锋区附近上升,并与低层倒槽辐合上升运动相配合,引发了倒槽附近特大暴雨的发生。4)此次过程中,低空急流稳定维持,源源不断地将水汽自东海输送至台风倒槽附近,水汽输送集中在800 hPa以下,850 hPa水汽通量辐合强度大于8×10-6g·cm^(-2)·hPa^(-1)·s^(-1)区域与暴雨落区的形态和位置对应良好。5)对流层中层的弱冷空气和低层的强暖湿气流促进了对流不稳定层结的发展和维持,低层强风速带在鲁中山区迎风坡强迫抬升不断触发中尺度对流系统,在中高层气流引导和地形作用下产生"列车效应",也是此次过程中局地特大暴雨产生的重要因素。 展开更多
关键词 温比亚 极端降水 冷空气 中尺度对流
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造成临桂极端大风的超级风暴单体观测分析 被引量:19
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作者 翟丽萍 农孟松 +1 位作者 梁维亮 赖珍权 《暴雨灾害》 2019年第4期346-353,共8页
2019年3月21日21:13 (北京时),广西桂林市临桂区国家气象观测站录到60.3 m·s-1极端大风,打破了广西气象站建站以来的历史极值。综合利用多种观测资料对临桂极端大风的发展演变和成因进行详细分析,结果表明:(1)地面锋前暖区对流在... 2019年3月21日21:13 (北京时),广西桂林市临桂区国家气象观测站录到60.3 m·s-1极端大风,打破了广西气象站建站以来的历史极值。综合利用多种观测资料对临桂极端大风的发展演变和成因进行详细分析,结果表明:(1)地面锋前暖区对流在移近临桂站时地面冷空气的适时入侵促进其发展成超级单体风暴,其产生的下击暴流击中临桂测站造成极端大风。(2)雷达回波表明该超级单体具有明显的钩状回波、中层径向辐合、近地面强辐散及反射率因子核心下降等雷达特征;风暴垂直方向流场结构表现为上面是反气旋性旋转或辐合、中间为径向速度辐合、底下为气旋性旋转。(3)中层径向辐合加强导致中气旋旋转性加大、直径减小、厚度增加,近地面层的强中气旋对下击暴流有加强作用。(4)环境条件分析表明临桂上空具有极好的产生雷暴大风的环境条件和发展成超级单体风暴的潜势。(5)极端雨强与极端大风相伴出现,表明降水拖曳作用是极端大风产生原因之一;在地形作用下冷空气大风对极端大风形成有叠加效应。 展开更多
关键词 极端大风 下击暴流 中气旋 冷空气 沟状回波
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2015年初北极极端气旋对中国寒潮的影响 被引量:12
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作者 张琳 吕俊梅 丁明虎 《应用气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2020年第3期315-327,共13页
从北大西洋中高纬度进入北极的极端气旋会引起北极异常增暖,与中高纬度极端天气事件关系密切,危害极大。利用ERA-Interim再分析资料和中国地面气象站观测资料,探讨了2015年1-2月两个极端气旋(C1,C2)影响中国天气的物理过程和机制。结果... 从北大西洋中高纬度进入北极的极端气旋会引起北极异常增暖,与中高纬度极端天气事件关系密切,危害极大。利用ERA-Interim再分析资料和中国地面气象站观测资料,探讨了2015年1-2月两个极端气旋(C1,C2)影响中国天气的物理过程和机制。结果表明:当极端气旋生成并北移,附近大气低层和高层均出现异常增暖,中高纬度大气环流表现为乌拉尔阻塞形势形成,极涡断裂,低压槽加深南压,我国发生寒潮天气;且极端气旋伴随的异常增暖加强Rossby波能量频散,使中高纬度的槽和脊发展。对比发现,C1和C2的生成地和路径均存在差异,相比于C2,C1生成纬度较高且路径偏东,对应低温寒潮天气范围更大,但强度比C2略弱。这些结果均表明,极端气旋的生成和移动是中国寒潮天气发生的重要原因之一。 展开更多
关键词 极端气旋 北极 极涡 冬季天气 寒潮
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Deciphering impacts of climate extremes on Tibetan grasslands in the last fifteen years 被引量:8
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作者 Dan Liu Tao Wang +4 位作者 Tao Yang Zhengjie Yan Yongwen Liu Yutong Zhao Shilong Piao 《Science Bulletin》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2019年第7期446-454,共9页
Climate extremes have emerged as a crucial driver of changes in terrestrial ecosystems. The Tibetan Plateau, facing a rapid climate change, tends to favor climate extremes. But we lack a clear understanding of the imp... Climate extremes have emerged as a crucial driver of changes in terrestrial ecosystems. The Tibetan Plateau, facing a rapid climate change, tends to favor climate extremes. But we lack a clear understanding of the impacts of such extremes on alpine grasslands. Here we show that extreme events(drought,extreme wet, extreme cold and extreme hot) occurred at a frequency of 0.67–4 months decade^(-1) during2001–2015, with extreme precipitation predominantly occurring in June-to-August and extreme temperatures in May. Drought and extreme wet cause opposite and asymmetric effects on grassland growth,with drought-induced reductions greater than increases due to extreme wet. Grassland responses to extreme temperatures, which predominantly occur in May, show a dipole-like spatial pattern, with extreme hot(cold) events enhanced(reduced) growth in the eastern plateau but slightly reduced(enhanced) growth in the western plateau. These opposite responses to extreme temperatures over the eastern plateau are explained by the possibility that the occurrence of extreme cold slows the preseason temperature accumulation, delaying the triggering of spring phenology, while extreme hot hastens the accumulation. In the western plateau, in contrast, positive responses to extreme cold are induced by accompanying high precipitation. Furthermore, high extremeness of climate events generally led to a much lower extremeness in growth response, implying that the Tibetan grasslands have a relatively high resistance to climate extremes. The ecosystem models tested could not accurately simulate grassland responses to drought and extreme temperatures, and require re-parameterization before trust can be placed in their output for this region. 展开更多
关键词 DROUGHT extreme cold extreme hot Growth response ALPINE grasslands TIBETAN PLATEAU
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Precursory Signals of Extensive and Persistent Extreme Cold Events in China 被引量:10
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作者 PENG Jing-Bei BUEH Cholaw 《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》 2012年第3期252-257,共6页
The distinct precursory signals of countrywide extensive and persistent extreme cold events (CECs) were investigated and contrasted with those of countrywide cold wave events (CCWs). It is shown that most CECs were ac... The distinct precursory signals of countrywide extensive and persistent extreme cold events (CECs) were investigated and contrasted with those of countrywide cold wave events (CCWs). It is shown that most CECs were accompanied by a CCW in the initial stages. From the comparison between the CECs and the CCWs that were independent of any CEC, it is found that a south- west-northeast-oriented tilted ridge at 500 hPa was present around the Europe-Barents Sea regions approximately 10 days prior to the start of the CEC. Consistent with this feature, a high sea level pressure and strong cold air accumulation occurred over a broad extent of northern Eurasia one week prior to the start of the CEC. The tilted ridge and the strong cold air accumulation were the precursory signals that were absent for the CCW, and they provide important clues for the early prediction of whether a CCW event might evolve into a CEC. 展开更多
关键词 precursory signal extensive and persistent extreme cold event cold wave the tilted ridge
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The Nature and Predictability of the East Asian Extreme Cold Events of 2020/21 被引量:9
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作者 Guokun DAI Chunxiang LI +2 位作者 Zhe HAN Dehai LUO Yao YAO 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第4期566-575,共10页
Three extreme cold events invaded China during the early winter period between December 2020 to mid-January 2021 and caused drastic temperature drops,setting new low-temperature records at many stations during 6−8 Jan... Three extreme cold events invaded China during the early winter period between December 2020 to mid-January 2021 and caused drastic temperature drops,setting new low-temperature records at many stations during 6−8 January 2021.These cold events occurred under background conditions of low Arctic sea ice extent and a La Niña event.This is somewhat expected since the coupled effect of large Arctic sea ice loss in autumn and sea surface temperature cooling in the tropical Pacific usually favors cold event occurrences in Eurasia.Further diagnosis reveals that the first cold event is related to the southward movement of the polar vortex and the second one is related to a continent-wide ridge,while both the southward polar vortex and the Asian blocking are crucial for the third event.Here,we evaluate the forecast skill for these three events utilizing the operational forecasts from the ECMWF model.We find that the third event had the highest predictability since it achieves the best skill in forecasting the East Asian cooling among the three events.Therefore,the predictability of these cold events,as well as their relationships with the atmospheric initial conditions,Arctic sea ice,and La Niña deserve further investigation. 展开更多
关键词 extreme cold event PREDICTABILITY Arctic atmospheric initial conditions Arctic sea ice La Niña
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Seasonal Cumulative Effect of Ural Blocking Episodes on the Frequent Cold events in China during the Early Winter of 2020/21 被引量:9
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作者 Yao YAO Wenqi ZHANG +2 位作者 Dehai LUO Linhao ZHONG Lin PEI 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第4期609-624,共16页
Starting in mid-November,China was hit by several cold events during the early winter of 2020/21.The lowest temperature observed at Beijing station on 7 January reached−19.6°C.In this paper,we show that the outbr... Starting in mid-November,China was hit by several cold events during the early winter of 2020/21.The lowest temperature observed at Beijing station on 7 January reached−19.6°C.In this paper,we show that the outbreak of the record-breaking extreme cold event can be attributed to a huge merging Ural blocking(UB)ridge over the Eurasian region.The sea-ice cover in the Kara and East Siberia Seas(KESS)in autumn was at its lowest value since 1979,which could have served as a precursor signal.Further analysis shows that several successive UB episodes occurred from 1 September 2020 to 10 January 2021.The persistent UB that occurred in late September/early October 2020 may have made an important contribution to the October historical minimum of sea ice in the KESS region.Our results also show that,after each UB episode in winter,significant upward propagation of wave activity occurred around 60°E,which resulted in weakening the stratospheric vortex.Meanwhile,each UB episode also caused a significant reduction in sea-ice extent in KESS and a significant weakening of the westerly jet in mid-high-latitude Eurasia.Results suggest that the Arctic vortex,which is supposed to enhance seasonally,became weaker and more unstable than the climatic mean under the seasonal cumulative effects of UB episodes,KESS warming,and long-lasting negative-phase North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO-).Those seasonal cumulative effects,combined with the impact of La Niña winter,led to the frequent occurrence of extreme cold events. 展开更多
关键词 extreme cold events Ural blocking Arctic sea ice Arctic vortex cumulative effect
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The 2020 Summer Floods and 2020/21 Winter Extreme Cold Surges in China and the 2020 Typhoon Season in the Western North Pacific 被引量:10
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作者 Chunzai WANG Yulong YAO +2 位作者 Haili WANG Xiubao SUN Jiayu ZHENG 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2021年第6期896-904,共9页
China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21.Additionally,the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity... China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21.Additionally,the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity during the first half of the season in the western North Pacific(WNP).Sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific,Indian,and Atlantic Oceans all contributed to the heavy rainfall in China,but the Atlantic and Indian Oceans seem to have played dominant roles.Enhancement and movement of the Siberian High caused a wavier pattern in the jet stream that allowed cold polar air to reach southward,inducing cold surges in China.Large vertical wind shear and low humidity in the WNP were responsible for fewer typhoons in the first half of the typhoon season.Although it is known that global warming can increase the frequency of extreme weather and climate events,its influences on individual events still need to be quantified.Additionally,the extreme cold surge during 16–18 February 2021 in the United States shares similar mechanisms with the winter 2020/21 extreme cold surges in China. 展开更多
关键词 extreme weather and climate events climate variability climate change summer floods winter cold surge typhoon activity
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鄂东北一次特大暴雨过程的两个中尺度对流系统分析 被引量:9
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作者 谌伟 岳阳 +2 位作者 刘佩廷 邓红 张蒙蒙 《暴雨灾害》 2017年第4期357-364,共8页
利用GFS再分析资料、常规及非常规观测资料,对比分析了2012年7月12—13日鄂东北特大暴雨中两个连续发生的MCSs(下面分别称为MCS1和MCS2)天气背景、雷达回波特征和地面中尺度系统演变,归纳了MCSs成熟阶段准静止—后向传播结构模型,结果表... 利用GFS再分析资料、常规及非常规观测资料,对比分析了2012年7月12—13日鄂东北特大暴雨中两个连续发生的MCSs(下面分别称为MCS1和MCS2)天气背景、雷达回波特征和地面中尺度系统演变,归纳了MCSs成熟阶段准静止—后向传播结构模型,结果表明:(1)东北冷涡的发展、西风低槽的缓慢东移及副热带高压的稳定导致南北气流长时间交汇于江淮流域形成梅雨锋切变和夜间低空急流的发展,是两个MCSs形成的有利大尺度背景条件。MCS1发生于中层梅雨锋前倾结构下;MCS2则是发展加强于低层梅雨锋切变上。(2)MCS1比MCS2的"冷池"更深厚,与环境温差更大,对流触发更剧烈,但"冷池"运动方向与MCSs传播方向均一致。(3)两个MCSs都出现了后向传播特征,前者可能与大别山脉对冷池的阻挡有关,后者可能与对流更易在不稳定区触发相关;成熟阶段时,MCSs因后向传播,移动缓慢甚至准静止,降水最强。(4)在回波结构上,MCS1向前传播时新生、成熟、消亡单体沿回波长轴自下风方向上风方排列,MCS1及MCS2后向传播时则反之。 展开更多
关键词 极端降水 中尺度对流系统 冷池 “列车效应” 准静止 传播
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2018年5月21日四川盆地极端大暴雨的中尺度成因和预报偏差分析 被引量:7
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作者 张芳 张芳华 +2 位作者 孔期 徐珺 陈涛 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2022年第6期691-704,共14页
2018年5月21日夜间,四川盆地西南部至南部地区发生了5月罕见的大暴雨,主客观预报均明显偏弱。采用多种观测资料及模式分析场和预报场数据,对极端大暴雨的环流背景、中尺度对流系统触发和发展机制以及预报偏差可能的原因等进行了分析。... 2018年5月21日夜间,四川盆地西南部至南部地区发生了5月罕见的大暴雨,主客观预报均明显偏弱。采用多种观测资料及模式分析场和预报场数据,对极端大暴雨的环流背景、中尺度对流系统触发和发展机制以及预报偏差可能的原因等进行了分析。此次大暴雨过程发生在西太平洋副热带高压西伸、异常偏强的蒙古冷涡引导冷空气南下的背景下,四川盆地南部的水汽和不稳定能量均较常年同期异常偏强,具备产生对流性强降水的极高潜势。高分辨率观测和分析资料揭示出四川盆地周边特殊地形对中尺度对流系统发生发展的动力和热力机制。偏北风在喇叭口和地形过渡区辐合抬升、在峡谷地带绕流形成中尺度辐合线或中尺度低压;由地形或上游强降水造成的降温加大了盆地西部和南部边缘的温度梯度,并在温度梯度大值区附近产生上升运动。盆地西南部持续偏北风辐合,加之地形阻挡,使得对流系统移动缓慢,累计降水量增大;而盆地南部对流的维持则主要受到天气尺度系统的影响。欧洲中心数值模式对盆地内对流层低层风场结构以及盆地周边复杂地形刻画的偏差,可能是导致对流性强降水预报明显偏弱的重要原因。 展开更多
关键词 四川盆地 极端暴雨 中尺度对流系统 冷空气 地形 预报偏差
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桂林市2019年“3.21”极端大风与“4.24”致灾冰雹过程特征对比分析 被引量:7
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作者 王艳兰 王娟 +3 位作者 伍静 唐熠 王军君 李向红 《热带气象学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2021年第2期175-185,共11页
利用常规、非常规观测及NCEP再分析资料,对比分析广西壮族自治区桂林市中γ系统造成的极端大风和中β系统造成的致灾冰雹过程。(1)高低空急流耦合为强对流天气提供有利背景条件,锋面及辐合线为触发系统。大风过程锋面、冰雹过程高空槽... 利用常规、非常规观测及NCEP再分析资料,对比分析广西壮族自治区桂林市中γ系统造成的极端大风和中β系统造成的致灾冰雹过程。(1)高低空急流耦合为强对流天气提供有利背景条件,锋面及辐合线为触发系统。大风过程锋面、冰雹过程高空槽动力作用更强。(2)均具有强的上干冷下暖湿不稳定层结、强下沉动能、CAPE及中低层垂直风切变,大风过程中层干层更显著,冰雹过程CAPE更大。(3)冷池出流与环境风垂直切变维持平衡使上升速度区呈垂直状态,利于飑线发展。变压风与冷池共同影响使风暴发展并向变压低中心移动,大风过程冷池前沿与变压低中心在广西临桂迭加,表明强风暴造成的下击暴流与低层中气旋迭加导致极端大风。(4)大风、冰雹均由镶嵌在飑线系统中的超级单体风暴造成,超级单体强回波中心达65 dBZ,具有弱回波区、三体散射。大风过程强风暴借助冷锋热力边界的斜压性形成低层中气旋,低层钩状回波更明显,并有明显的MARC及强回波核心下降特征;冰雹过程强回波质心高,VIL达55~65 kg/m2,并有跃升现象。(5)均有中等强度中气旋。大风过程中气旋比冰雹过程低,半径明显减小。大风过程中气旋与龙卷涡旋特征同时出现,对极端大风有预警作用。 展开更多
关键词 极端大风 雹暴 特征 冷池 中气旋
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极端气温对济南市心脑血管疾病死亡的影响 被引量:7
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作者 韩京 张军 +4 位作者 周林 房巧玲 刘守钦 张济 张颖 《山东大学学报(医学版)》 CAS 北大核心 2017年第11期71-74,共4页
目的探讨极端气温对济南市心脑血管疾病死亡的影响,并为制定防治对策提供依据。方法收集济南市2011年至2014年居民心脑血管疾病逐日死亡资料和同时期的气象资料。极端气温定义:寒潮为每年10月至第二年3月至少连续3 d日平均温度低于济南... 目的探讨极端气温对济南市心脑血管疾病死亡的影响,并为制定防治对策提供依据。方法收集济南市2011年至2014年居民心脑血管疾病逐日死亡资料和同时期的气象资料。极端气温定义:寒潮为每年10月至第二年3月至少连续3 d日平均温度低于济南市2011年至2014年日平均温度的第5百分位数;热浪为每年的5至8月至少连续3 d日平均温度高于济南市研究期间的日平均温度的第95百分位数。采用时间序列泊松回归模型,在控制长期趋势、滞后效应和气象因素的影响后,定量分析平均温度对心脑血管疾病日死亡人数及死亡风险的影响。结果济南市心脑血管疾病死亡分布具有明显的季节性。极端气温暴露(寒潮和热浪)期显著增加了济南市心脑血管疾病日均死亡人数(P<0.01)。泊松回归结果显示,极端气温暴露显著增加了济南市心脑血管疾病的死亡风险,寒潮期与热浪期的死亡风险分别为1.06(95%CI:1.03~1.10)和1.03(95%CI:1.00~1.06),与非极端气温暴露期比较,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。全部人群不论性别与年龄均是寒潮敏感人群,仅高年龄组(≥65岁)是热浪敏感人群。结论极端气温显著增加济南市居民心脑血管疾病日死亡人数与死亡风险;应对极端气温制定公共卫生应急预警政策应覆盖全人群。 展开更多
关键词 极端气温事件 寒潮 热浪 心脑血管疾病
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台风“鮎鱼”极端降水分析 被引量:7
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作者 范爱芬 彭霞云 +1 位作者 娄小芬 王丽颍 《气象科技》 2019年第1期79-88,共10页
1617号台风"鮎鱼"的降水异常强大,温州、丽水部分县市的过程雨量和日雨量超过历史极值,灾害严重。利用NCEP 0.5°×0.5°再分析资料、FY-2G卫星资料、多普勒雷达探测资料和自动站加密观测等资料,对其成因展开分... 1617号台风"鮎鱼"的降水异常强大,温州、丽水部分县市的过程雨量和日雨量超过历史极值,灾害严重。利用NCEP 0.5°×0.5°再分析资料、FY-2G卫星资料、多普勒雷达探测资料和自动站加密观测等资料,对其成因展开分析。结果表明:"鮎鱼"东面与强大稳定的副高之间构成东南急流;北面与缓慢东移的华北高压之间构成偏东风急流;南面是与西南季风相连接的西南急流;3支低空急流构建的切变辐合区是水汽辐合和不稳定能量的集合区,也是中尺度对流的强烈发展区,温州、丽水部分县市的极端降水由中尺度对流的持续发生发展引发。低空急流的长时间持续,特别充沛的水汽输送和冷空气的影响是"鮎鱼"极端降水的主要影响机制。冷空气影响期间,降雨回波发展旺盛,结构紧密,回波强度和降水效率等明显强于无冷空气影响时台风本体环流降雨回波。云顶相当黑体亮度温度(TBB)与台风降水有较好的对应关系,有一定预报参考价值。 展开更多
关键词 台风“鮎鱼” 极端降水 中尺度对流 低空急流 水汽输送 冷空气
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1960-2018年珠江流域极端气温时空变化特征 被引量:5
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作者 徐飞 张汶海 +2 位作者 赵玲玲 王钧 宫清华 《山地学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2022年第3期343-354,共12页
分析流域尺度极端气温事件时空变化特征及其原因,是区域气象灾害预警与风险防控的科学基础。中国疆域辽阔、气候复杂多变,加之地形与地理位置差异、各地极端气温变化表现不一,极端气候呈现出区域差异性的时空变化特征。珠江流域作为我... 分析流域尺度极端气温事件时空变化特征及其原因,是区域气象灾害预警与风险防控的科学基础。中国疆域辽阔、气候复杂多变,加之地形与地理位置差异、各地极端气温变化表现不一,极端气候呈现出区域差异性的时空变化特征。珠江流域作为我国经济发展的重要增长区,是气候变化和生态环境的敏感区,极端高温事件频发,造成严重的经济损失。珠江流域极端气温时空变化方面的研究,过去并没有考虑地理因子对极端气温变化特征的影响。本文基于1960—2018年珠江流域内57个气象站点逐日平均、最高和最低气温资料,采用12个极端气温指数分析极端气温时空变化特征,预测其未来变化趋势。研究表明:(1)1960—2018年珠江流域极端气温暖指数呈增加趋势,而极端气温冷指数减少,并且极端低温变化趋势大于极端高温变化趋势,致使气温日较差下降。极端气温夜晚变化趋势较白天更为剧烈。(2)基于Hurst指数分析,所有极端气温指数Hurst指数值都大于0.5,表明未来珠江流域极端气温指数仍将保持目前的趋势方向。(3)珠江流域极端气温指数的变化具有明显的空间差异性,东南部低海拔区增温更为剧烈。(4)极端气温冷指数受涛动指数的影响较大,而极端气温暖指数受夏季风指数影响较大。本研究量化区域极端气温时空变化特征,可为流域极端气温预警决策提供科学指导。 展开更多
关键词 极端气温 暖指数 冷指数 变化趋势 珠江流域
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A Statistical Linkage between Extreme Cold Wave Events in Southern China and Sea Ice Extent in the Barents-Kara Seas from 1289 to 2017 被引量:2
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作者 Cunde XIAO Qi ZHANG +4 位作者 Jiao YANG Zhiheng DU Minghu DING Tingfeng DOU Binhe LUO 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2023年第12期2154-2168,共15页
Arctic sea ice loss and the associated enhanced warming has been related to midlatitude weather and climate changes through modulate meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation. However, contrasting lines o... Arctic sea ice loss and the associated enhanced warming has been related to midlatitude weather and climate changes through modulate meridional temperature gradients linked to circulation. However, contrasting lines of evidence result in low confidence in the influence of Arctic warming on midlatitude climate. This study examines the additional perspectives that palaeoclimate evidence provides on the decadal relationship between autumn sea ice extent (SIE) in the Barents-Kara (B-K) Seas and extreme cold wave events (ECWEs) in southern China. Reconstruction of the winter Cold Index and SIE in the B-K Seas from 1289 to 2017 shows that a significant anti-phase relationship occurred during most periods of decreasing SIE, indicating that cold winters are more likely in low SIE years due to the “bridge” role of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Siberian High. It is confirmed that the recent increase in ECWEs in southern China is closely related to the sea ice decline in the B-K Seas. However, our results show that the linkage is unstable, especially in high SIE periods, and it is probably modulated by atmospheric internal variability. 展开更多
关键词 extreme cold wave events sea ice Barents-Kara(B-K)Seas Arctic southern China
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The Predictability of Ocean Environments that Contributed to the 2020/21 Extreme Cold Events in China:2020/21 La Niña and 2020 Arctic Sea Ice Loss 被引量:4
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作者 Fei ZHENG Ji-Ping LIU +6 位作者 Xiang-Hui FANG Mi-Rong SONG Chao-Yuan YANG Yuan YUAN Ke-Xin LI Ji WANG Jiang ZHU 《Advances in Atmospheric Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2022年第4期658-675,共18页
Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is sti... Several consecutive extreme cold events impacted China during the first half of winter 2020/21,breaking the low-temperature records in many cities.How to make accurate climate predictions of extreme cold events is still an urgent issue.The synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and cold tropical Pacific has been demonstrated to intensify the intrusions of cold air from polar regions into middle-high latitudes,further influencing the cold conditions in China.However,climate models failed to predict these two ocean environments at expected lead times.Most seasonal climate forecasts only predicted the 2020/21 La Niña after the signal had already become apparent and significantly underestimated the observed Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020 with a 1-2 month advancement.In this work,the corresponding physical factors that may help improve the accuracy of seasonal climate predictions are further explored.For the 2020/21 La Niña prediction,through sensitivity experiments involving different atmospheric-oceanic initial conditions,the predominant southeasterly wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific in spring of 2020 are diagnosed to play an irreplaceable role in triggering this cold event.A reasonable inclusion of atmospheric surface winds into the initialization will help the model predict La Niña development from the early spring of 2020.For predicting the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn 2020,an anomalously cyclonic circulation from the central Arctic Ocean predicted by the model,which swept abnormally hot air over Siberia into the Arctic Ocean,is recognized as an important contributor to successfully predicting the minimum Arctic sea ice extent. 展开更多
关键词 extreme cold event PREDICTABILITY La Niña Arctic sea ice loss
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高寒、高海拔地区常态大体积混凝土温控实践 被引量:5
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作者 勾中刚 张义 +1 位作者 晏国顺 翁锐 《水电与新能源》 2019年第12期43-46,共4页
在西藏DG水电站发电厂房基础约束区大体积混凝土的施工中,基于混凝土材料不变的情况下,通过改进施工工艺探索了大体积混凝土的温度控制效果。由温度数据的分析与不断调整各项温控技术指标,最终形成了一套对高寒、高海拔地区大体混凝土... 在西藏DG水电站发电厂房基础约束区大体积混凝土的施工中,基于混凝土材料不变的情况下,通过改进施工工艺探索了大体积混凝土的温度控制效果。由温度数据的分析与不断调整各项温控技术指标,最终形成了一套对高寒、高海拔地区大体混凝土温控效果最优的工艺流程。 展开更多
关键词 高寒 高海拔 大体积混凝土 温控
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Changes in Atmospheric Circulation during the Winter Regional Extreme Cold Events over China since 1960 被引量:1
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作者 Dongxue FU Yihui DING 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2023年第5期589-603,共15页
The number of days with occurrence of winter regional extreme cold events(RECEs) in China was found more during 1960/1961–1985/1986(period 1), less during 1986/1987–2005/2006(period 2), but more again during2006/200... The number of days with occurrence of winter regional extreme cold events(RECEs) in China was found more during 1960/1961–1985/1986(period 1), less during 1986/1987–2005/2006(period 2), but more again during2006/2007–2017/2018(period 3). So far, the differences in the atmospheric circulation favoring RECEs among these three periods are unclear. In this paper, changes in atmospheric circulation during the RECEs over China are examined by using composite analysis based on the station observed temperature data and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data in winters of 1960/1961–2017/2018. The results show:(1) the stratospheric polar vortex was more active and tended to split before the outbreak of RECEs in period 3 than that in other two periods. The shift of the stratospheric polar vortex to Eurasia helped the upper Arctic cold air to affect the lower latitudes.(2) The troposphere was characterized by a typical or significant three-wave pattern before the outbreak of RECEs in period 2, in contrast to a weakened three-wave pattern in period 1. Compared to periods 1 and 2, the Okhotsk blocking high was stronger in period 3, contributing to the inverted omega-shaped circulation pattern in East Asia–North Pacific section and a shift of global pattern from three-wave to two-wave. The weakened three-wave or two-wave circulation pattern was manifested by the stronger Ural/Okhotsk blocking high, conducive to the strengthening of the meridional circulation and the occurrence of RECEs in East Asia.(3) The Siberian high was the strongest in period 3, followed by period 1, and it was the weakest in period 2. Before the outbreak of RECEs, the Siberian high in period 3 began to intensify one week earlier than that in periods 1 and 2. Thus, the accumulation time of cold air mass in period 3 was the longest. In summary, the synergism of atmospheric circulation at high and low levels in periods 1 and 3 was more conducive to more and strong RECEs than that in period 2. Moreover, the split of the stratospheric polar vortex may have play 展开更多
关键词 regional extreme cold events interdecadal variation polar vortex blocking high East Asian trough
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Trends of Temperature Extreme Indices over Arusha and Kilimanjaro Regions in Tanzania 被引量:1
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作者 Ladislaus Benedict Chang’a Lovina Peter Japheth +4 位作者 Agnes Lawrence Kijazi Elisia Hamisi Zobanya Leila Francis Muhoma Meshack Anton Mliwa Jafari Swalehe Chobo 《Atmospheric and Climate Sciences》 2021年第3期520-534,共15页
The study aimed at analyzing the trends and variability of temperature extreme</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span st... The study aimed at analyzing the trends and variability of temperature extreme</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">s</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> over </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">the </span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">northeastern highlands in Tanzania, specifically over Arusha and Kilimanjaro regions. Quality controlled mean monthly, daily maximum and minimum temperature data for the period 1961 to 2020</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> obtained from Tanzania Meteorological Authority</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> were used in the study. Rclimdex and the National Climate Monitoring Products (NMCP) software</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> developed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;">,</span></span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> were used for computation of the indices at a monthly, season 展开更多
关键词 Climate extreme Warm Night cold Night extreme Temperature Indices NCMP
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