该文主要介绍了科技部国家重点基础研究发展规划项目“首都北京及周边地区大气、水、土环境污染机理及调控原理”大气分项目的研究成果。项目分别于2001年和2003年重点开展了BECAPEX科学试验(Beijing City AirPollution Experiment)。BE...该文主要介绍了科技部国家重点基础研究发展规划项目“首都北京及周边地区大气、水、土环境污染机理及调控原理”大气分项目的研究成果。项目分别于2001年和2003年重点开展了BECAPEX科学试验(Beijing City AirPollution Experiment)。BECAPEX试验同步进行城市边界层气象与大气化学观测,通过卫星遥感、地面观测,即城市空间和地面以及点与面结合的技术途径,以揭示北京城市污染“空气穹隆”大气化学结构特征及其变化规律,为城市环境大气动力-化学模式提供基本科学参数,给出城市边界层大气物理化学过程综合模型,为提高城市环境大气物理-化学过程耦合模式的准确性和可靠性提供科学依据。该项目揭示了北京城区和城近郊区城市边界层结构与湍流特征,城市大气污染垂直结构特征;发现了城市大气污染空间结构多尺度特征,其中包括大气污染源影响和城市热岛多尺度特征;揭示了城市大气重污染过程周边源影响域,以及北京及周边地区气溶胶影响域和区域气候响应;提出了北京市典型污染源排放清单;发展了城市气象模式系统,包括冠层模式、街谷环流和热力结构以及城市高大建筑群周围风环境数值模拟;发展了空气质量模式技术,包括二次气溶胶模拟试验、北京地区SO2污染的长期模拟及不同类型排放源影响的计算与评估、影响北京地区的沙尘暴输送模拟、区域化学输送模式中NOx和O3源示踪法,城市尺度的大气污染CAPPS模式及统计模型的应用、大气污染及紫外辐射数值预报模式和CMAQ-MOS空气质量预报方法;改进了美国公共多尺度空气质量预报模式,建立了CMAQ-MOS区域空气质量动力-统计模型预报模式,以及发展的源同化技术,突破了当前空气质量模式技术“瓶颈”,使模式预报准确率明显提高。展开更多
Based on the 1983~2011 CMAP data,the precipitation anomaly in East Asia and its nearby sea regions（hereafter called East Asia for short） demonstrates the ＂＋-＋＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＂ pattern afterw...Based on the 1983~2011 CMAP data,the precipitation anomaly in East Asia and its nearby sea regions（hereafter called East Asia for short） demonstrates the ＂＋-＋＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＂ pattern afterwards; this decadal change is contained principally in the corresponding EOF3 component.However,the NCC_CGCM forecast results are quite different,which reveal the ＂＋-＋-＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＋＂ pattern afterwards.Meanwhile,the probability of improving NCC_CGCM＇s forecast accuracy based on these key SST areas is discussed,and the dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme is constructed for increasing the information of decadal change contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia.The independent sample forecast results indicate that this forecasting scheme can effectively modify the NCC_CGCM＇s decadal change information contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia（especially in the area of 30°N–55°N）.The ACC is 0.25 and ACR is 61% for the forecasting result based on the V SST area,and the mean ACC is 0.03 and ACR is 51% for the seven key areas,which are better than NCC_CGCM＇s system error correction results（ACC is -0.01 and ACR is 49%）.Besides,the modified forecast results also provide the information that the precipitation anomaly in East Asia mainly shows the ＂＋-＋＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＂ pattern afterwards.展开更多
文摘该文主要介绍了科技部国家重点基础研究发展规划项目“首都北京及周边地区大气、水、土环境污染机理及调控原理”大气分项目的研究成果。项目分别于2001年和2003年重点开展了BECAPEX科学试验(Beijing City AirPollution Experiment)。BECAPEX试验同步进行城市边界层气象与大气化学观测,通过卫星遥感、地面观测,即城市空间和地面以及点与面结合的技术途径,以揭示北京城市污染“空气穹隆”大气化学结构特征及其变化规律,为城市环境大气动力-化学模式提供基本科学参数,给出城市边界层大气物理化学过程综合模型,为提高城市环境大气物理-化学过程耦合模式的准确性和可靠性提供科学依据。该项目揭示了北京城区和城近郊区城市边界层结构与湍流特征,城市大气污染垂直结构特征;发现了城市大气污染空间结构多尺度特征,其中包括大气污染源影响和城市热岛多尺度特征;揭示了城市大气重污染过程周边源影响域,以及北京及周边地区气溶胶影响域和区域气候响应;提出了北京市典型污染源排放清单;发展了城市气象模式系统,包括冠层模式、街谷环流和热力结构以及城市高大建筑群周围风环境数值模拟;发展了空气质量模式技术,包括二次气溶胶模拟试验、北京地区SO2污染的长期模拟及不同类型排放源影响的计算与评估、影响北京地区的沙尘暴输送模拟、区域化学输送模式中NOx和O3源示踪法,城市尺度的大气污染CAPPS模式及统计模型的应用、大气污染及紫外辐射数值预报模式和CMAQ-MOS空气质量预报方法;改进了美国公共多尺度空气质量预报模式,建立了CMAQ-MOS区域空气质量动力-统计模型预报模式,以及发展的源同化技术,突破了当前空气质量模式技术“瓶颈”,使模式预报准确率明显提高。
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB955203)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41205040,41105055)the Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201306021)
文摘Based on the 1983~2011 CMAP data,the precipitation anomaly in East Asia and its nearby sea regions（hereafter called East Asia for short） demonstrates the ＂＋-＋＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＂ pattern afterwards; this decadal change is contained principally in the corresponding EOF3 component.However,the NCC_CGCM forecast results are quite different,which reveal the ＂＋-＋-＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＋＂ pattern afterwards.Meanwhile,the probability of improving NCC_CGCM＇s forecast accuracy based on these key SST areas is discussed,and the dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme is constructed for increasing the information of decadal change contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia.The independent sample forecast results indicate that this forecasting scheme can effectively modify the NCC_CGCM＇s decadal change information contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia（especially in the area of 30°N–55°N）.The ACC is 0.25 and ACR is 61% for the forecasting result based on the V SST area,and the mean ACC is 0.03 and ACR is 51% for the seven key areas,which are better than NCC_CGCM＇s system error correction results（ACC is -0.01 and ACR is 49%）.Besides,the modified forecast results also provide the information that the precipitation anomaly in East Asia mainly shows the ＂＋-＋＂ pattern before 1999 and the ＂-＋-＂ pattern afterwards.
