摘要
利用2010年1—12月的T639数值预报产品作为预报形势场,以1980—2009年共30年的NCEP资料作为历史样本场。利用动态相似统计方法,对T639的预报产品,从30年的历史样本场中找相似个例。选取因子,采用多元回归法,对T639的预报产品进行订正方案设计。用2011年1—6月的T639预报产品对方案的订正效果进行检验。对比分析发现,方案对东北半球3天以上的高度场和4天以上的温度场订正效果明显,高度场的订正效果优于温度场。
The T639L60 model data of 2010 are used as the forecast fields, and the NCEP data from 1980 to 2009 are used as the historical sample database. The analogue examples of T639L60 model forecast fields are picked out from the sample database, based on statistical forecast with dynamic analog, and the correction scheme of T639L60 model data is designed with the multiple regression method. The correction effectiveness of the scheme is tested using the T639L60 model data from January 2011 to June 2011. The results show that the correction effectiveness of the forecast fields over three days in China is obvious, based on statistical forecast with dynamic analog, and the correction effectiveness of synoptic situation fields is better than element fields.
出处
《气象科技》
2014年第1期145-150,共6页
Meteorological Science and Technology
