我国大豆主要价格与国际市场大豆价格的周期波动态势基本一致。国内大豆需求与供给对外依存度很高,我国大豆价格主要受国际市场因素传导所决定。统计显示,国际大豆价格与大宗商品价格均为国内大豆价格的格兰杰原因,但美元指数不是国内...我国大豆主要价格与国际市场大豆价格的周期波动态势基本一致。国内大豆需求与供给对外依存度很高,我国大豆价格主要受国际市场因素传导所决定。统计显示,国际大豆价格与大宗商品价格均为国内大豆价格的格兰杰原因,但美元指数不是国内大豆价格的格兰杰原因。建立的V A R模型表明,国内大豆价格受滞后1-2期国际因素的传导作用,产生上涨与下跌的交替影响效应;对国际因素的脉冲响应显示,国内大豆价格对国际市场的短期冲击较为敏感,且来自国际大豆价格的冲击明显强于大宗商品价格的冲击。预计2017年我国大豆主要价格将处于小幅上升态势。展开更多
Background:Bitcoin,the most innovate digital currency as of now,created since 2008,even through experienced its ups and downs,still keeps drawing attentions to all parts of society.It relies on peer-to-peer network,ac...Background:Bitcoin,the most innovate digital currency as of now,created since 2008,even through experienced its ups and downs,still keeps drawing attentions to all parts of society.It relies on peer-to-peer network,achieved decentralization,anonymous and transparent.As the most representative digital currency,people curious to study how Bitcoin’price changes in the past.Methods:In this paper,we use monthly data from 2011 to 2016 to build a VEC model to exam how economic factors such as Custom price index,US dollar index,Dow jones industry average,Federal Funds Rate and gold price influence Bitcoin price.Result:From empirical analysis we find that all these variables do have a long-term influence.US dollar index is the biggest influence on Bitcoin price while gold price influence the least.Conclusion:From our result,we conclude that for now Bitcoin can be treated as a speculative asset,however,it is far from being a proper credit currency.展开更多
文摘我国大豆主要价格与国际市场大豆价格的周期波动态势基本一致。国内大豆需求与供给对外依存度很高,我国大豆价格主要受国际市场因素传导所决定。统计显示,国际大豆价格与大宗商品价格均为国内大豆价格的格兰杰原因,但美元指数不是国内大豆价格的格兰杰原因。建立的V A R模型表明,国内大豆价格受滞后1-2期国际因素的传导作用,产生上涨与下跌的交替影响效应;对国际因素的脉冲响应显示,国内大豆价格对国际市场的短期冲击较为敏感,且来自国际大豆价格的冲击明显强于大宗商品价格的冲击。预计2017年我国大豆主要价格将处于小幅上升态势。
基金This work was supported by the Key Plan of National Social Science Foundation of China under the Grant 14ZDA044.
文摘Background:Bitcoin,the most innovate digital currency as of now,created since 2008,even through experienced its ups and downs,still keeps drawing attentions to all parts of society.It relies on peer-to-peer network,achieved decentralization,anonymous and transparent.As the most representative digital currency,people curious to study how Bitcoin’price changes in the past.Methods:In this paper,we use monthly data from 2011 to 2016 to build a VEC model to exam how economic factors such as Custom price index,US dollar index,Dow jones industry average,Federal Funds Rate and gold price influence Bitcoin price.Result:From empirical analysis we find that all these variables do have a long-term influence.US dollar index is the biggest influence on Bitcoin price while gold price influence the least.Conclusion:From our result,we conclude that for now Bitcoin can be treated as a speculative asset,however,it is far from being a proper credit currency.
