摘要
随着我国汇率制度改革的逐渐深入,汇率的市场化特征日益显著,人民币汇率双向波动加大成为常态。人民币汇率与美元指数以及黄金价格之间高度相关,随着美联储进入加息周期,美元持续走强,将影响人民币汇率和黄金价格走势。本文基于时差分析法判断美元指数、黄金指数、CFETS指数对人民币汇率的先行、滞后或同步关系,运用VAR模型分析了各指标之间的动态关系,结合汇率制度以及当前全球宏观经济金融形势,分析实证结果,并提出相关政策建议。
With the gradual deepening of the reform of China’s exchange rate system,the marketization of the exchange rate has become increasingly prominent,and the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate has become the norm.The RMB exchange rate is highly correlated with the US dollar index and the gold price.As the Federal Reserve enters the interest rate hike cycle,the US dollar continues to strengthen,which in turn affects the trend of the RMB exchange rate and the gold price.Based on the time difference analysis method,this paper judges the leading,lagging or synchronous relationship between the US dollar index,gold index and CFETS index and the RMB exchange rate,uses the VAR model to analyze the dynamic relationship between various indicators,combines the exchange rate system and the current global macroeconomic and financial situation,deeply analyzes the empirical results,and puts forward relevant policy suggestions on this basis.
出处
《浙江金融》
2022年第8期51-60,共10页
Zhejiang Finance
