A running mean bias （RMB） correction ap- proach was applied to the forecasts of near-surface variables in a seasonal short-range ensemble forecasting experiment with 57 consecutive cases during summer 2010 in the no...A running mean bias （RMB） correction ap- proach was applied to the forecasts of near-surface variables in a seasonal short-range ensemble forecasting experiment with 57 consecutive cases during summer 2010 in the northern China region. To determine a proper training window length for calculating RMB, window lengths from 2 to 20 days were evaluated, and 16 days was taken as an optimal window length, since it receives most of the benefit from extending the window length. The raw and 16-day RMB corrected ensembles were then evaluated for their ensemble mean forecast skills. The results show that the raw ensemble has obvious bias in all near-surface variables. The RMB correction can remove the bias reasonably well, and generate an unbiased ensemble. The bias correction not only reduces the ensemble mean forecast error, but also results in a better spreaderror relationship. Moreover, two methods for computing calibrated probabilistic forecast （PF） were also evaluated through the 57 case dates： 1） using the relative frequency from the RMB-eorrected ensemble; 2） computing the forecasting probabilities based on a historical rank histogram. The first method outperforms the second one, as it can improve both the reliability and the resolution of the PFs, while the second method only has a small effect on the reliability, indicating the necessity and importance of removing the systematic errors from the ensemble.展开更多
The intrinsic optimum temperature for the development of ectotherms is one of the most important factors not only for their physiological processes but also for ecolog- ical and evolutional processes. The Sharpe-Schoo...The intrinsic optimum temperature for the development of ectotherms is one of the most important factors not only for their physiological processes but also for ecolog- ical and evolutional processes. The Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto （SSI） model succeeded in defining the temperature that can thermodynamically meet the condition that at a par- ticular temperature the probability of an active enzyme reaching its maximum activity is realized. Previously, an algorithm was developed by Ikemoto （Tropical malaria does not mean hot environments. Journal of Medical Entomology, 45, 963-969） to estimate model parameters, but that program was computationally very time consuming. Now, investi- gators can use the SSI model more easily because a full automatic computer program was designed by Shi et al. （A modified program for estimating the parameters of the SSI model. Environmental Entomology, 40, 462-469）. However, the statistical significance of the point estimate of the intrinsic optimum temperature for each ectotherm has not yet been determined. Here, we provided a new method for calculating the confidence interval of the estimated intrinsic optimum temperature by modifying the approximate bootstrap confidence intervals method. For this purpose, it was necessary to develop a new program for a faster estimation of the parameters in the SSI model, which we have also done.展开更多
In this paper we propose a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator (CAN) of intensities ρ1 , ρ2 for a queueing network with feedback (in which a job may return to previously visited nodes) with distribution-f...In this paper we propose a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator (CAN) of intensities ρ1 , ρ2 for a queueing network with feedback (in which a job may return to previously visited nodes) with distribution-free inter-arrival and service times. Using this estimator and its estimated variance, some 100(1-α)% asymptotic confidence intervals of intensities are constructed. Also bootstrap approaches such as Standard bootstrap, Bayesian bootstrap, Percentile bootstrap and Bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap are also applied to develop the confidence intervals of intensities. A comparative analysis is conducted to demonstrate performances of the confidence intervals of intensities for a queueing network with short run data.展开更多
基金supported by a project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41305099)
文摘A running mean bias （RMB） correction ap- proach was applied to the forecasts of near-surface variables in a seasonal short-range ensemble forecasting experiment with 57 consecutive cases during summer 2010 in the northern China region. To determine a proper training window length for calculating RMB, window lengths from 2 to 20 days were evaluated, and 16 days was taken as an optimal window length, since it receives most of the benefit from extending the window length. The raw and 16-day RMB corrected ensembles were then evaluated for their ensemble mean forecast skills. The results show that the raw ensemble has obvious bias in all near-surface variables. The RMB correction can remove the bias reasonably well, and generate an unbiased ensemble. The bias correction not only reduces the ensemble mean forecast error, but also results in a better spreaderror relationship. Moreover, two methods for computing calibrated probabilistic forecast （PF） were also evaluated through the 57 case dates： 1） using the relative frequency from the RMB-eorrected ensemble; 2） computing the forecasting probabilities based on a historical rank histogram. The first method outperforms the second one, as it can improve both the reliability and the resolution of the PFs, while the second method only has a small effect on the reliability, indicating the necessity and importance of removing the systematic errors from the ensemble.
文摘The intrinsic optimum temperature for the development of ectotherms is one of the most important factors not only for their physiological processes but also for ecolog- ical and evolutional processes. The Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto （SSI） model succeeded in defining the temperature that can thermodynamically meet the condition that at a par- ticular temperature the probability of an active enzyme reaching its maximum activity is realized. Previously, an algorithm was developed by Ikemoto （Tropical malaria does not mean hot environments. Journal of Medical Entomology, 45, 963-969） to estimate model parameters, but that program was computationally very time consuming. Now, investi- gators can use the SSI model more easily because a full automatic computer program was designed by Shi et al. （A modified program for estimating the parameters of the SSI model. Environmental Entomology, 40, 462-469）. However, the statistical significance of the point estimate of the intrinsic optimum temperature for each ectotherm has not yet been determined. Here, we provided a new method for calculating the confidence interval of the estimated intrinsic optimum temperature by modifying the approximate bootstrap confidence intervals method. For this purpose, it was necessary to develop a new program for a faster estimation of the parameters in the SSI model, which we have also done.
文摘In this paper we propose a consistent and asymptotically normal estimator (CAN) of intensities ρ1 , ρ2 for a queueing network with feedback (in which a job may return to previously visited nodes) with distribution-free inter-arrival and service times. Using this estimator and its estimated variance, some 100(1-α)% asymptotic confidence intervals of intensities are constructed. Also bootstrap approaches such as Standard bootstrap, Bayesian bootstrap, Percentile bootstrap and Bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap are also applied to develop the confidence intervals of intensities. A comparative analysis is conducted to demonstrate performances of the confidence intervals of intensities for a queueing network with short run data.
