Human population continues to aggregate in urban centers. This inevitably increases the urban footprint with significant consequences for biodiversity, climate, and environmental resources. Urban growth prediction mod...Human population continues to aggregate in urban centers. This inevitably increases the urban footprint with significant consequences for biodiversity, climate, and environmental resources. Urban growth prediction models have been extensively studied with the overarching goal to assist in sustainable management of urban centers. Despite the extensive body of research, these models are not frequently included in the decision making process. This review aims on bringing this gap by analyzing results from a survey investigating developer and user perceptions from the modeling and planning communities, respectively. An overview of existing models, including advantages and limitations, is also provided. A total of 156 manuscripts is identified. Analysis of aggregated statistics indicates that cellular automata are the prevailing modeling technique, present in the majority of published works. There is also a strong preference for local or regional studies, a choice possibly related to data availability. The survey found a strong recognition of the models’ potential in decision making, but also limited agreement that these models actually reach that potential in practice. Collaboration between planning and modeling communities is deemed essential for transitioning models into practice. Data availability is considered a stronger restraining factor by respondents with limited algorithmic experience, which may indicate that model input data are becoming more specialized, thus significantly limiting wide-spread applicability. This review assesses developer and user perceptions and critically discusses existing urban growth prediction models, acting as a reference for future model development. Specific guidelines are provided to facilitate transition of this relatively mature science into decision making展开更多
This paper examines the need for a return to a systemic,holistic,and normative approach to designing human settlements that has been neglected with the decline of the Welfare State and the shift to iecemeal,freewheeli...This paper examines the need for a return to a systemic,holistic,and normative approach to designing human settlements that has been neglected with the decline of the Welfare State and the shift to iecemeal,freewheeling,marked-based development during the unprecedented explosion of construction in the last thirty years.The need for a change is brought about by the current ecological and economic crises linked to a high degree to the current belief that the quality of cities emerges from the added-value of individual buildings or through the assemblage of individual structures put together like a building.This paper argues that a city is not like a building.The contemporary city is characterized by an unprecedented number of problems.These problems cannot be handled by individual good will or simple preventive or corrective actions by architects and developers as it has been done the last three decades.What is needed is an overall systemic framework of planning that ① is driven by normative criteria,② can handle a high degree of complexity and interdependence of factors,and ③ can deal with unanticipated,unintended,long-term irreversible environmental impacts that characterize the "third ecology," the inseparable complex of the natural and the human-made.展开更多
文摘Human population continues to aggregate in urban centers. This inevitably increases the urban footprint with significant consequences for biodiversity, climate, and environmental resources. Urban growth prediction models have been extensively studied with the overarching goal to assist in sustainable management of urban centers. Despite the extensive body of research, these models are not frequently included in the decision making process. This review aims on bringing this gap by analyzing results from a survey investigating developer and user perceptions from the modeling and planning communities, respectively. An overview of existing models, including advantages and limitations, is also provided. A total of 156 manuscripts is identified. Analysis of aggregated statistics indicates that cellular automata are the prevailing modeling technique, present in the majority of published works. There is also a strong preference for local or regional studies, a choice possibly related to data availability. The survey found a strong recognition of the models’ potential in decision making, but also limited agreement that these models actually reach that potential in practice. Collaboration between planning and modeling communities is deemed essential for transitioning models into practice. Data availability is considered a stronger restraining factor by respondents with limited algorithmic experience, which may indicate that model input data are becoming more specialized, thus significantly limiting wide-spread applicability. This review assesses developer and user perceptions and critically discusses existing urban growth prediction models, acting as a reference for future model development. Specific guidelines are provided to facilitate transition of this relatively mature science into decision making
文摘This paper examines the need for a return to a systemic,holistic,and normative approach to designing human settlements that has been neglected with the decline of the Welfare State and the shift to iecemeal,freewheeling,marked-based development during the unprecedented explosion of construction in the last thirty years.The need for a change is brought about by the current ecological and economic crises linked to a high degree to the current belief that the quality of cities emerges from the added-value of individual buildings or through the assemblage of individual structures put together like a building.This paper argues that a city is not like a building.The contemporary city is characterized by an unprecedented number of problems.These problems cannot be handled by individual good will or simple preventive or corrective actions by architects and developers as it has been done the last three decades.What is needed is an overall systemic framework of planning that ① is driven by normative criteria,② can handle a high degree of complexity and interdependence of factors,and ③ can deal with unanticipated,unintended,long-term irreversible environmental impacts that characterize the "third ecology," the inseparable complex of the natural and the human-made.
