In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used...In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, i.e., evidence- theory-based reliability metrics, interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis- based reliability metrics, possibility-theory-based reliability metrics （posbist reliability） and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics （belief reliability）. It is pointed out that a qualified reli- ability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to （ 1 ） compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and （2） satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61573043)
文摘In this paper, a systematic review of non-probabilistic reliability metrics is conducted to assist the selection of appropriate reliability metrics to model the influence of epistemic uncertainty. Five frequently used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are critically reviewed, i.e., evidence- theory-based reliability metrics, interval-analysis-based reliability metrics, fuzzy-interval-analysis- based reliability metrics, possibility-theory-based reliability metrics （posbist reliability） and uncertainty-theory-based reliability metrics （belief reliability）. It is pointed out that a qualified reli- ability metric that is able to consider the effect of epistemic uncertainty needs to （ 1 ） compensate the conservatism in the estimations of the component-level reliability metrics caused by epistemic uncertainty, and （2） satisfy the duality axiom, otherwise it might lead to paradoxical and confusing results in engineering applications. The five commonly used non-probabilistic reliability metrics are compared in terms of these two properties, and the comparison can serve as a basis for the selection of the appropriate reliability metrics.
文摘能量收集网络(energy harvesting network)是一种新型的计算机网络形式,它通过搜寻各类环境能源,将其转化成可用的电能,然后将这些电能作为主要或辅助的电源方式供给电子设备进行网络通信。然而,能量收集过程具有极大的波动性和不确定性,传统方法基于解析概率分布函数刻画能量收集过程,无法准确模拟实际情况,导致节点死亡概率较高、可靠性无法保证。为此,提出能量收集网络节点能量收集可靠性定义,对节点能量收集的置信程度给出评价,基于不确定理论,对能量收集的可靠性进行评估分析,分别建立节点无电池和无限容量电池情况下的可靠性模型。在此基础上提出能量收集可靠性多层不确定规划模型,对模型求解并提出一种能量平均分配(EAA,energy average allocation)算法,并从理论上证明算法竞争比的上界。最后,以实际的风电数据为例,验证所提模型和方法的可行性和有效性。
