Background Typhoid/paratyphoid fever （TPF） is endemic in Guizhou.We conducted wavelet analysis and Spearman＇s rank correlation analysis to explore the impact of meteorological variations on TPF infection in Guizhou...Background Typhoid/paratyphoid fever （TPF） is endemic in Guizhou.We conducted wavelet analysis and Spearman＇s rank correlation analysis to explore the impact of meteorological variations on TPF infection in Guizhou,in an attempt to assess the risk factors associated with TPF epidemics.Methods We examined the association between TPF incidence in Guizhou and temperature,precipitation and relative humidity using 24 years of data from 1984 to 2007.Periodicities of TPF incidence and the impact of climate factors on the TPF were detected by Spearman＇s rank correlation and wavelet analysis,Results Temperature and precipitation with a 1-month lag were positively correlated with the monthly incidence of TPF.The multiyear incidence pattern of TPF in Guizhou was explicitly periodic.Moreover,the association and driving effect of precipitation on TPF were observed,and the results showed that the incidence of TPF in Guizhou had a closer correlation with precipitation than with temperature.Conclusions Safe water supply is the key issue for TPF control in Guizhou.Moreover,climate variation might impact the enteric infections,which may inform policy assessment for TPF control in Guizhou.展开更多
目的分析1999-2015年红塔区伤寒与副伤寒(typhoid and paratyphoid fever,TPF)地方病区域流行特征和气象变量的关系,为TPF监测控制和危险因素评价提供科学依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法和自主研发计算机软件建立中国疾病预防控制信息...目的分析1999-2015年红塔区伤寒与副伤寒(typhoid and paratyphoid fever,TPF)地方病区域流行特征和气象变量的关系,为TPF监测控制和危险因素评价提供科学依据。方法采用描述流行病学方法和自主研发计算机软件建立中国疾病预防控制信息系统红塔区TPF病例分布与流行特征数据库,用Pearson相关分析和多元线性逐步回归分析研究TPF发病和气象变量关系。结果 1999-2015年报告TPF病例数为8 398例,1999、2015年分别报告23、44例。1999-2015年期间每年3~5月、6~10月、11月~次年2月分别为发病上升期(月均增长率63.8%)、高峰期(月均降低率2.0%)和下降期(月均降低率25.7%),每年度病例数都呈现3月~10月季节性升高和11月~次年2月季节性降低;2000年8月至2010年12月每月病例数都大于8例,2000-2002、2004-2005、2005-2007、2007-2008、2008-2010年出现五个高强度流行峰,峰期范围是12~24个月,周期范围是11~40个月;2001、2004、2006、2007、2009年五个高峰年度6~10月病例数范围分别为86~217、67~215、125~216、97~131、63~95例;1999、2000、2002、2003、2005、2008、2010、2015年八个低峰年度6~10月病例数范围分别为1~3、1~17、32~60、30~43、46~55、43~78、22~61、2~11例。单因素分析TPF月平均发病率与月平均降雨量(r=0.825,P<0.01)、月平均气温(r=0.797,P<0.01)和月平均相对湿度(r=0.706,P<0.05)呈正相关;经多元逐步回归分析建立TPF月平均发病率(Y)与月平均降雨量(X)的拟合模型方程Y=4.563+0.051X。结论红塔区TPF发病呈现季节性升高与降低、周期性流行、长期趋势特点;发病率与降雨量、气温、相对湿度呈正相关;传染源积累、重污染源形成、暴露人群增加驱动着流行特征与气象变量关系;相应规律、机制、政策、评估有助TPF的监测控制。展开更多
文摘Background Typhoid/paratyphoid fever （TPF） is endemic in Guizhou.We conducted wavelet analysis and Spearman＇s rank correlation analysis to explore the impact of meteorological variations on TPF infection in Guizhou,in an attempt to assess the risk factors associated with TPF epidemics.Methods We examined the association between TPF incidence in Guizhou and temperature,precipitation and relative humidity using 24 years of data from 1984 to 2007.Periodicities of TPF incidence and the impact of climate factors on the TPF were detected by Spearman＇s rank correlation and wavelet analysis,Results Temperature and precipitation with a 1-month lag were positively correlated with the monthly incidence of TPF.The multiyear incidence pattern of TPF in Guizhou was explicitly periodic.Moreover,the association and driving effect of precipitation on TPF were observed,and the results showed that the incidence of TPF in Guizhou had a closer correlation with precipitation than with temperature.Conclusions Safe water supply is the key issue for TPF control in Guizhou.Moreover,climate variation might impact the enteric infections,which may inform policy assessment for TPF control in Guizhou.
