Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world＇s and China＇s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resourc...Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world＇s and China＇s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world＇s and China＇s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources （especially iron ores and copper ores） are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserve- production ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world＇s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015-2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4-0.7 billion tons （Gt）, 5.0-6.0 million tons （Mt）, 1.1-8.9 Mt, 1.0-2.0 Mt, 1.2-2.0 Mt and 4.8-5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China＇s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores （crude steel）, potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores （crude steel） will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassiu展开更多
基金supported by the China geological survey subproject of Dynamic Track and Evaluation of the Guarantee Degree of the Main Mineral Resources in China(No.121201103000150112,N1618-8)
文摘Bulk mineral resources of iron ores, copper ores, bauxite, lead ores, zinc ores and potassium salt play a pivotal role on the world＇s and China＇s economic development. This study analyzed and predicted their resources base and potential, development and utilization and their world＇s and China＇s supply and demand situation in the future 20 years. The supply and demand of these six bulk mineral products are generally balanced, with a slight surplus, which will guarantee the stability of the international mineral commodity market supply. The six mineral resources （especially iron ores and copper ores） are abundant and have a great potential, and their development and utilization scale will gradually increase. Till the end of 2014, the reserve- production ratio of iron, copper, bauxite, lead, zinc ores and potassium salt was 95 years, 42 years, 100 years, 17 years, 37 years and 170 years, respectively. Except lead ores, the other five types all have reserve-production ratio exceeding 20 years, indicative of a high resources guarantee degree. If the utilization of recycled metals is counted in, the supply of the world＇s six mineral products will exceed the demand in the future twenty years. In 2015-2035, the supply of iron ores, refined copper, primary aluminum, refined lead, zinc and potassium salt will exceed their demand by 0.4-0.7 billion tons （Gt）, 5.0-6.0 million tons （Mt）, 1.1-8.9 Mt, 1.0-2.0 Mt, 1.2-2.0 Mt and 4.8-5.6 Mt, respectively. It is predicted that there is no problem with the supply side of bulk mineral products such as iron ores, but local or structural shortage may occur because of geopolitics, monopoly control, resources nationalism and trade friction. Affected by China＇s compressed industrialized development model, the demand of iron ores （crude steel）, potassium salt, refined lead, refined copper, bauxite （primary aluminum） and zinc will gradually reach their peak in advance. The demand peak of iron ores （crude steel） will reach around 2015, 2016 for potassiu
