Knowing daily traffic for the current year is recognized as being essential in many fields of transport analysis and practice, and short-term forecasting models offer a set of tools to meet these needs. This paper exa...Knowing daily traffic for the current year is recognized as being essential in many fields of transport analysis and practice, and short-term forecasting models offer a set of tools to meet these needs. This paper examines and compares the accuracy of three representative parametric and non-parametric prediction models, selected by the analysis of the numerous methods proposed in the literature for their good combi- nation of forecast accuracy and ease of calibration, using real-life data on Italian motorway stretches. Non-parametric K-NN regression model, Gaussian maximum likelihood model and double seasonality Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model confirm their goodness to predict the weekly and monthly fluctuations of average daily traffic with varying degrees of performance, while maintaining an easy use in professional practice, i.e. requiring ordinary professional skills and conventional analysis tools. Since combining several prediction models can give, on average, more accuracy than that of the individual models, the paper compares two weighting methods of easy implementation and susceptible to a direct use, namely the widely used information entropy method and the less widespread Shapley value method. Despite being less common than the information entropy method, the Shapley value method proves to be more capable in better combining single forecasts and produces improvements in the predictions for test data. With these remarks, the paper might be of interest to traffic technicians or analysts, in various and not uncommon tasks they might find in their work.展开更多
The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic ...The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic flow forecasting; however, BPNN is easy to fall into local optimum and slow convergence. In order to overcome these deficiencies, a new approach called social emotion optimization algorithm(SEOA) is proposed in this paper to optimize the linked weights and thresholds of BPNN. Each individual in SEOA represents a BPNN. The availability of the proposed forecasting models is proved with the actual traffic flow data of the 2 nd Ring Road of Beijing. Experiment of results show that the forecasting accuracy of SEOA is improved obviously as compared with the accuracy of particle swarm optimization back-propagation(PSOBP) and simulated annealing particle swarm optimization back-propagation(SAPSOBP) models. Furthermore, since SEOA does not respond to the negative feedback information, Metropolis rule is proposed to give consideration to both positive and negative feedback information and diversify the adjustment methods. The modified BPNN model, in comparison with social emotion optimization back-propagation(SEOBP) model, is more advantageous to search the global optimal solution. The accuracy of Metropolis rule social emotion optimization back-propagation(MRSEOBP) model is improved about 19.54% as compared with that of SEOBP model in predicting the dramatically changing data.展开更多
基于核学习的强大非线性映射性能,针对短时交通流量预测,提出一类基于核学习方法的预测模型。核递推最小二乘(KRLS)基于近似线性依赖(approximate linear dependence,ALD)技术可降低计算复杂度及存储量,是一种在线核学习方法,适用于较...基于核学习的强大非线性映射性能,针对短时交通流量预测,提出一类基于核学习方法的预测模型。核递推最小二乘(KRLS)基于近似线性依赖(approximate linear dependence,ALD)技术可降低计算复杂度及存储量,是一种在线核学习方法,适用于较大规模数据集的学习;核偏最小二乘(KPLS)方法将输入变量投影在潜在变量上,利用输入与输出变量之间的协方差信息提取潜在特征;核极限学习机(KELM)方法用核函数表示未知的隐含层非线性特征映射,通过正则化最小二乘算法计算网络的输出权值,能以极快的学习速度获得良好的推广性。为验证所提方法的有效性,将KELM、KPLS、ALD-KRLS用于不同实测交通流数据中,在同等条件下,与现有方法进行比较。实验结果表明,不同核学习方法的预测精度和训练速度均有所提高,体现了核学习方法在短时交通流量预测中的应用潜力。展开更多
文摘Knowing daily traffic for the current year is recognized as being essential in many fields of transport analysis and practice, and short-term forecasting models offer a set of tools to meet these needs. This paper examines and compares the accuracy of three representative parametric and non-parametric prediction models, selected by the analysis of the numerous methods proposed in the literature for their good combi- nation of forecast accuracy and ease of calibration, using real-life data on Italian motorway stretches. Non-parametric K-NN regression model, Gaussian maximum likelihood model and double seasonality Holt-Winters exponential smoothing model confirm their goodness to predict the weekly and monthly fluctuations of average daily traffic with varying degrees of performance, while maintaining an easy use in professional practice, i.e. requiring ordinary professional skills and conventional analysis tools. Since combining several prediction models can give, on average, more accuracy than that of the individual models, the paper compares two weighting methods of easy implementation and susceptible to a direct use, namely the widely used information entropy method and the less widespread Shapley value method. Despite being less common than the information entropy method, the Shapley value method proves to be more capable in better combining single forecasts and produces improvements in the predictions for test data. With these remarks, the paper might be of interest to traffic technicians or analysts, in various and not uncommon tasks they might find in their work.
基金the Research of New Intelligent Integrated Transport Information System,Technical Plan Project of Binhai New District,Tianjin(No.2015XJR21017)
文摘The back-propagation neural network(BPNN) is a well-known multi-layer feed-forward neural network which is trained by the error reverse propagation algorithm. It is very suitable for the complex of short-term traffic flow forecasting; however, BPNN is easy to fall into local optimum and slow convergence. In order to overcome these deficiencies, a new approach called social emotion optimization algorithm(SEOA) is proposed in this paper to optimize the linked weights and thresholds of BPNN. Each individual in SEOA represents a BPNN. The availability of the proposed forecasting models is proved with the actual traffic flow data of the 2 nd Ring Road of Beijing. Experiment of results show that the forecasting accuracy of SEOA is improved obviously as compared with the accuracy of particle swarm optimization back-propagation(PSOBP) and simulated annealing particle swarm optimization back-propagation(SAPSOBP) models. Furthermore, since SEOA does not respond to the negative feedback information, Metropolis rule is proposed to give consideration to both positive and negative feedback information and diversify the adjustment methods. The modified BPNN model, in comparison with social emotion optimization back-propagation(SEOBP) model, is more advantageous to search the global optimal solution. The accuracy of Metropolis rule social emotion optimization back-propagation(MRSEOBP) model is improved about 19.54% as compared with that of SEOBP model in predicting the dramatically changing data.
文摘基于核学习的强大非线性映射性能,针对短时交通流量预测,提出一类基于核学习方法的预测模型。核递推最小二乘(KRLS)基于近似线性依赖(approximate linear dependence,ALD)技术可降低计算复杂度及存储量,是一种在线核学习方法,适用于较大规模数据集的学习;核偏最小二乘(KPLS)方法将输入变量投影在潜在变量上,利用输入与输出变量之间的协方差信息提取潜在特征;核极限学习机(KELM)方法用核函数表示未知的隐含层非线性特征映射,通过正则化最小二乘算法计算网络的输出权值,能以极快的学习速度获得良好的推广性。为验证所提方法的有效性,将KELM、KPLS、ALD-KRLS用于不同实测交通流数据中,在同等条件下,与现有方法进行比较。实验结果表明,不同核学习方法的预测精度和训练速度均有所提高,体现了核学习方法在短时交通流量预测中的应用潜力。
