Constructing βmesoscale weather systems in initial fields remains a challenging problem in a mesoscale numerical weather prediction （NWP） model. Without vertical velocity matching the βmesoscale weather system, co...Constructing βmesoscale weather systems in initial fields remains a challenging problem in a mesoscale numerical weather prediction （NWP） model. Without vertical velocity matching the βmesoscale weather system, convection activities would be suppressed by downdraft and cooling caused by precipitating hydrom eteors. In this study, a method, basing on the threedimensional variational （3DVAR） assimilation technique, was developed to obtain reasonable structures of βmesoscale weather systems by assimilating radar data in a nextgeneration NWP system named GRAPES （the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） of China. Singlepoint testing indicated that assimilating radial wind significantly improved the horizontal wind but had little effect on the vertical velocity, while assimilating the retrieved vertical velocity （taking Richardson’s equation as the observational operator） can greatly improve the vertical motion. Ex periments on a typhoon show that assimilation of the radial wind data can greatly improve the prediction of the typhoon track, and can ameliorate precipitation to some extent. Assimilating the retrieved vertical velocity and rainwater mixing ratio, and adjusting water vapor and cloud water mixing ratio in the initial fields simultaneously, can significantly improve the tropical cyclone rainfall forecast but has little effect on typhoon path. Joint assimilating these three kinds of radar data gets the best results. Taking into account the scale of different weather systems and representation of observational data, data quality control, error setting of background field and observation data are still requiring further indepth study.展开更多
An analysis was conducted on the evolutional process of a mesoscale convective vortex （MCV） and associated heavy rainfall in the Dabie Mountain area on 21-22 June 2008,as well as their structural characteristics in ...An analysis was conducted on the evolutional process of a mesoscale convective vortex （MCV） and associated heavy rainfall in the Dabie Mountain area on 21-22 June 2008,as well as their structural characteristics in different stages,by using the mesoscale reanalysis data with 3 km and 1 h resolution generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System （LAPS） in the Southern China Heavy Rainfall Experiment.The results showed that the latent heat released by convection in the midtroposphere was the main energy source for the development of a low-level vortex.There was a positive feedback interaction between the convection and the vortex,and the evolution of the MCV was closely related to the strength of the positive interaction.The most typical characteristics of the thermal structure in different stages were that,there was a relatively thin diabatic heating layer in the midtroposphere in the formative stage;the thickness of diabatic heating layer significantly increased in the mature stage;and it almost disappeared in the decay stage.The characteristics of the dynamic structure were that,in the formative stage,there was no anticyclonic circulation at the high level;in the mature stage,an anticyclonic circulation with strong divergence was formed at the high level;in the decay stage,the anticyclonic circulation was damaged and the high-level atmosphere was in a disordered state of turbulence.Finally,the structural schematics of the MCV in the formative and mature stage were established respectively.展开更多
The evolution of a mesoscale convective system （MCS） that caused strong precipitation in the northern area of Dabie Mountain during 21 22 June 2008 is analyzed, along with the evolution of the associated meso-β-sca...The evolution of a mesoscale convective system （MCS） that caused strong precipitation in the northern area of Dabie Mountain during 21 22 June 2008 is analyzed, along with the evolution of the associated meso-β-scale convective vortex （MCV）. The mesoscale reanalysis data generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System （LAPS） at a 3-km horizontal resolution and a 1-h time resolution during the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment （SCHeREX） were utilized. The results show that two processes played key roles in the enhancement of convective instability. First, the mesoscale low-level jet strengthened and shifted eastward, leading to the convergence of warm-wet airflow and increasing convective instability at middle and low levels. Second, the warm-wet airflow interacted with the cold airflow from the north, causing increased vertical vorticity in the vicinity of steeply sloping moist isentropic surfaces. The combined action of these two processes caused the MCS to shift progressively eastward. Condensation associated with the MCS released latent heat and formed a layer of large diabatic heating in the middle troposphere, increasing the potential vorticity below this layer. This increase in potential vorticity created favorable conditions for the development of a low-level vortex circulation. The vertical motion associated with this low-level vortex further promoted the development of convection, creating a positive feedback between the deep convection and the low-level vortex circulation. This feedback mechanism not only promoted the maturation of the MCS, but also played the primary role in the evolution of the MCV. The MCV formed and developed due to the enhancement of the positive feedback that accompanied the coming together of the center of the vortex and the center of the convection. The positive feedback peaked and the MCV matured when these two centers converged. The positive feedback weakened and the MCV began to decay as the two centers separated and diverged.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Scientific and Technological Project (Grant No 2006BAC02B00)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No40518001)
文摘Constructing βmesoscale weather systems in initial fields remains a challenging problem in a mesoscale numerical weather prediction （NWP） model. Without vertical velocity matching the βmesoscale weather system, convection activities would be suppressed by downdraft and cooling caused by precipitating hydrom eteors. In this study, a method, basing on the threedimensional variational （3DVAR） assimilation technique, was developed to obtain reasonable structures of βmesoscale weather systems by assimilating radar data in a nextgeneration NWP system named GRAPES （the Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System） of China. Singlepoint testing indicated that assimilating radial wind significantly improved the horizontal wind but had little effect on the vertical velocity, while assimilating the retrieved vertical velocity （taking Richardson’s equation as the observational operator） can greatly improve the vertical motion. Ex periments on a typhoon show that assimilation of the radial wind data can greatly improve the prediction of the typhoon track, and can ameliorate precipitation to some extent. Assimilating the retrieved vertical velocity and rainwater mixing ratio, and adjusting water vapor and cloud water mixing ratio in the initial fields simultaneously, can significantly improve the tropical cyclone rainfall forecast but has little effect on typhoon path. Joint assimilating these three kinds of radar data gets the best results. Taking into account the scale of different weather systems and representation of observational data, data quality control, error setting of background field and observation data are still requiring further indepth study.
基金supported by the state "973" project "Research on Theories and Methods of Monitoring and Predicting of Heavy Rainfall in South China" (Grant No. 2004CB418300)
文摘An analysis was conducted on the evolutional process of a mesoscale convective vortex （MCV） and associated heavy rainfall in the Dabie Mountain area on 21-22 June 2008,as well as their structural characteristics in different stages,by using the mesoscale reanalysis data with 3 km and 1 h resolution generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System （LAPS） in the Southern China Heavy Rainfall Experiment.The results showed that the latent heat released by convection in the midtroposphere was the main energy source for the development of a low-level vortex.There was a positive feedback interaction between the convection and the vortex,and the evolution of the MCV was closely related to the strength of the positive interaction.The most typical characteristics of the thermal structure in different stages were that,there was a relatively thin diabatic heating layer in the midtroposphere in the formative stage;the thickness of diabatic heating layer significantly increased in the mature stage;and it almost disappeared in the decay stage.The characteristics of the dynamic structure were that,in the formative stage,there was no anticyclonic circulation at the high level;in the mature stage,an anticyclonic circulation with strong divergence was formed at the high level;in the decay stage,the anticyclonic circulation was damaged and the high-level atmosphere was in a disordered state of turbulence.Finally,the structural schematics of the MCV in the formative and mature stage were established respectively.
基金Supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development (973) Program of China (2004CB418300)
文摘The evolution of a mesoscale convective system （MCS） that caused strong precipitation in the northern area of Dabie Mountain during 21 22 June 2008 is analyzed, along with the evolution of the associated meso-β-scale convective vortex （MCV）. The mesoscale reanalysis data generated by the Local Analysis and Prediction System （LAPS） at a 3-km horizontal resolution and a 1-h time resolution during the South China Heavy Rainfall Experiment （SCHeREX） were utilized. The results show that two processes played key roles in the enhancement of convective instability. First, the mesoscale low-level jet strengthened and shifted eastward, leading to the convergence of warm-wet airflow and increasing convective instability at middle and low levels. Second, the warm-wet airflow interacted with the cold airflow from the north, causing increased vertical vorticity in the vicinity of steeply sloping moist isentropic surfaces. The combined action of these two processes caused the MCS to shift progressively eastward. Condensation associated with the MCS released latent heat and formed a layer of large diabatic heating in the middle troposphere, increasing the potential vorticity below this layer. This increase in potential vorticity created favorable conditions for the development of a low-level vortex circulation. The vertical motion associated with this low-level vortex further promoted the development of convection, creating a positive feedback between the deep convection and the low-level vortex circulation. This feedback mechanism not only promoted the maturation of the MCS, but also played the primary role in the evolution of the MCV. The MCV formed and developed due to the enhancement of the positive feedback that accompanied the coming together of the center of the vortex and the center of the convection. The positive feedback peaked and the MCV matured when these two centers converged. The positive feedback weakened and the MCV began to decay as the two centers separated and diverged.
