Background:The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China,and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this re...Background:The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China,and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region.Methods:A community-based,cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016.Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections,and imported cases were identified in each village(between January 2013 and September 2016).A stochastic simulation model(SSM)was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability,according to the mechanisms of malaria importation.Results:Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages,with a 4-year average of 1 case/year(range:0-5 cases/year).No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016.The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012(range:0.000-0.033).The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56%(range:28.38-71.95%).Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection.The SSM model fit the investigated data(χ2=0.487,P=0.485).The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011(range:0.0048-0.1585).The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village.Conclusions:A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region.Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China.展开更多
Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox's importa...Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox's importation risk,border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese mainland.Methods We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11,2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from Global.health and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation Guide.We constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine requirement.And we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men,considering different transmissibility,population immunity and population activity.Results We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations respectively.Under the quarantine policy,15-19% of imported infections would remain undetected.Once a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity,the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%,and would rise to>95% with over six cases.Conclusions Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COvID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations prominently.However,the risk could be sub-stantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic level.Mpox could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.展开更多
基金This work was supported by Scientific Project of Shanghai Municipal Commission of Health and Family Planning(No.20164Y0047).
文摘Background:The China-Myanmar border region presents a great challenge in malaria elimination in China,and it is essential to understand the relationship between malaria vulnerability and population mobility in this region.Methods:A community-based,cross-sectional survey was performed in five villages of Yingjiang county during September 2016.Finger-prick blood samples were obtained to identify asymptomatic infections,and imported cases were identified in each village(between January 2013 and September 2016).A stochastic simulation model(SSM)was used to test the relationship between population mobility and malaria vulnerability,according to the mechanisms of malaria importation.Results:Thirty-two imported cases were identified in the five villages,with a 4-year average of 1 case/year(range:0-5 cases/year).No parasites were detected in the 353 blood samples from 2016.The median density of malaria vulnerability was 0.012(range:0.000-0.033).The average proportion of mobile members of the study population was 32.56%(range:28.38-71.95%).Most mobile individuals lived indoors at night with mosquito protection.The SSM model fit the investigated data(χ2=0.487,P=0.485).The average probability of infection in the members of the population that moved to Myanmar was 0.011(range:0.0048-0.1585).The values for simulated vulnerability increased with greater population mobility in each village.Conclusions:A high proportion of population mobility was associated with greater malaria vulnerability in the China-Myanmar border region.Mobile population-specific measures should be used to decrease the risk of malaria re-establishment in China.
基金This study was supported by grants from Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(82130093).
文摘Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox's importation risk,border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese mainland.Methods We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11,2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from Global.health and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation Guide.We constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine requirement.And we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men,considering different transmissibility,population immunity and population activity.Results We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations respectively.Under the quarantine policy,15-19% of imported infections would remain undetected.Once a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity,the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%,and would rise to>95% with over six cases.Conclusions Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COvID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations prominently.However,the risk could be sub-stantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic level.Mpox could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.
