As a kind of sudden and common natural disast er, flood is characterize d by the temporal fraction. A date series of floods was established according to the catastrophic records in Wuzhou, Zhuang Autonomous Region of...As a kind of sudden and common natural disast er, flood is characterize d by the temporal fraction. A date series of floods was established according to the catastrophic records in Wuzhou, Zhuang Autonomous Region of Gaungxi, P. R. China since 1949.By the means of the model of fractional brownian motion, we can imitate the temporal sequence of past and forecast the developin g trend in future, on the basis of which, the R/S analysis was employed to cal cul ate the temporal sequence, the ‘H' exponent and function R(τ)/S(τ) were d etermi ned. It is anticipated that the next catastrophic flood in Wuzhou will happen in 1999.展开更多
文摘As a kind of sudden and common natural disast er, flood is characterize d by the temporal fraction. A date series of floods was established according to the catastrophic records in Wuzhou, Zhuang Autonomous Region of Gaungxi, P. R. China since 1949.By the means of the model of fractional brownian motion, we can imitate the temporal sequence of past and forecast the developin g trend in future, on the basis of which, the R/S analysis was employed to cal cul ate the temporal sequence, the ‘H' exponent and function R(τ)/S(τ) were d etermi ned. It is anticipated that the next catastrophic flood in Wuzhou will happen in 1999.
