为了保证油气集输站场的安全生产和运行,基于标准《Risk-based Inspection Methodology》(API RP 5812016)和可靠性分析方法GO法,提出1种可完全定量的站场失效可能性评价方法,为站场的全定量风险评价方法提供依据和参考。首先,分析站场...为了保证油气集输站场的安全生产和运行,基于标准《Risk-based Inspection Methodology》(API RP 5812016)和可靠性分析方法GO法,提出1种可完全定量的站场失效可能性评价方法,为站场的全定量风险评价方法提供依据和参考。首先,分析站场内各设备的失效机理,计算其失效概率;然后,根据站场工艺特点,将其划分为若干个子系统,利用GO操作符的定量计算公式,确定各子系统及站场整体的失效可能性值;最后,以某油田联合处理站为实例,采用该方法对其工艺设备、站场子系统及站场整体的失效概率进行计算和分析,确定该站场的失效可能性等级。研究结果表明:通过失效可能性定量评价可使站场风险评价更加量化直观,为站场维护及安全生产运行工作提供更加客观的依据。展开更多
In this article,mathematical modeling for the evaluation of reliability is studied using two methods.One of the methods,is developed based on possibility theory.The performance of the reliability of the system is of p...In this article,mathematical modeling for the evaluation of reliability is studied using two methods.One of the methods,is developed based on possibility theory.The performance of the reliability of the system is of prime concern.In view of this,the outcomes for the failure are required to evaluate with utmost care.In possibility theory,the reliability information data determined from decision-making experts are subjective.The samemethod is also related to the survival possibilities as against the survival probabilities.The other method is the one that is developed using the concept of approximation of closed interval including the piecewise quadratic fuzzy numbers.In this method,a decision-making expert is not sure of his/her estimates of the reliability parameters.Numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the efficiency of the suggested methods in this research.In the end,the paper is concluded with some future research directions to be explored for the proposed approach.展开更多
The total storage of full containment LNG storage tanks is very huge. Once the tank rupture or leakage, the consequence will be unimaginable. Therefore it is necessary to perform the risk-based inspection （RBI） and ...The total storage of full containment LNG storage tanks is very huge. Once the tank rupture or leakage, the consequence will be unimaginable. Therefore it is necessary to perform the risk-based inspection （RBI） and evaluation on LNG storage tanks, and the analysis on LNG storage tanks failure possibility is especially important in the RBI. Recently, Risk-based inspection （RBI） technology based on API 581 is gradually adopted and has become a new technology to determine economic feasibility and safety of equipment in petrochemical plants. However, there are limitations of applying API 581 to LNG equipment because of the unique structure of LNG storage tank （the metal inner tank and concrete outer tank）. Therefore, a failure probability calculation model suitable for full containment LNG storage tanks is proposed. The domestic inner tank is usually made of 9%Ni, and its failure possibility can be calculate based on API581; the outer tank is usually made of pre-stressed concrete, and the failure possibility of structure durability can be calculated by the method of fuzzy mathematics ; Then the failure possibility of the inner tank and the outer tank will be comprehensive considered by using cellulose model. Finally, by citing a real example, it also detailedly introduces the application of this proposed calculation model in the failure possibility analysis of full containment LNG storage tanks. This study provides a new approach for the evaluation of failure possibility on full containment LNG storage tanks.展开更多
文摘为了保证油气集输站场的安全生产和运行,基于标准《Risk-based Inspection Methodology》(API RP 5812016)和可靠性分析方法GO法,提出1种可完全定量的站场失效可能性评价方法,为站场的全定量风险评价方法提供依据和参考。首先,分析站场内各设备的失效机理,计算其失效概率;然后,根据站场工艺特点,将其划分为若干个子系统,利用GO操作符的定量计算公式,确定各子系统及站场整体的失效可能性值;最后,以某油田联合处理站为实例,采用该方法对其工艺设备、站场子系统及站场整体的失效概率进行计算和分析,确定该站场的失效可能性等级。研究结果表明:通过失效可能性定量评价可使站场风险评价更加量化直观,为站场维护及安全生产运行工作提供更加客观的依据。
文摘In this article,mathematical modeling for the evaluation of reliability is studied using two methods.One of the methods,is developed based on possibility theory.The performance of the reliability of the system is of prime concern.In view of this,the outcomes for the failure are required to evaluate with utmost care.In possibility theory,the reliability information data determined from decision-making experts are subjective.The samemethod is also related to the survival possibilities as against the survival probabilities.The other method is the one that is developed using the concept of approximation of closed interval including the piecewise quadratic fuzzy numbers.In this method,a decision-making expert is not sure of his/her estimates of the reliability parameters.Numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the efficiency of the suggested methods in this research.In the end,the paper is concluded with some future research directions to be explored for the proposed approach.
文摘The total storage of full containment LNG storage tanks is very huge. Once the tank rupture or leakage, the consequence will be unimaginable. Therefore it is necessary to perform the risk-based inspection （RBI） and evaluation on LNG storage tanks, and the analysis on LNG storage tanks failure possibility is especially important in the RBI. Recently, Risk-based inspection （RBI） technology based on API 581 is gradually adopted and has become a new technology to determine economic feasibility and safety of equipment in petrochemical plants. However, there are limitations of applying API 581 to LNG equipment because of the unique structure of LNG storage tank （the metal inner tank and concrete outer tank）. Therefore, a failure probability calculation model suitable for full containment LNG storage tanks is proposed. The domestic inner tank is usually made of 9%Ni, and its failure possibility can be calculate based on API581; the outer tank is usually made of pre-stressed concrete, and the failure possibility of structure durability can be calculated by the method of fuzzy mathematics ; Then the failure possibility of the inner tank and the outer tank will be comprehensive considered by using cellulose model. Finally, by citing a real example, it also detailedly introduces the application of this proposed calculation model in the failure possibility analysis of full containment LNG storage tanks. This study provides a new approach for the evaluation of failure possibility on full containment LNG storage tanks.
