摘要
为评价液化天然气(LNG)接收站失效可能性,预测其发展趋势,保障LNG接收站的安全运行,首先建立LNG接收站失效可能性评价指标体系,它包括7大方面,20个子因素。其次考虑到指标之间存在相互影响,采用网络层次分析法(ANP)确定指标权重。最后结合五元联系数及其偏联系数评价某LNG接收站失效可能性,并将五元联系数法与其他几种方法对比,并以某LNG接收站为例进行分析。实例分析结果表明,所评价的LNG接收站总体失效可能性为低,失效可能性有上升趋势。
In order to assess failure possibility of LNG terminal, predicting its development tendency, and ensuring the safety operation. First, a failure possibility assessment index system of LNG terminal was established, which includes 20 subfactors belonging to 7 aspects. Then, taking the dependence and mutual effect between indexes into consideration, weights of the indexes were obtained by using ANP. Finally, on the basis of both five-element connection number and its partial connection number, the failure possibility of LNG terminal can be evaluated. A comparison was made between five-element connection number method and several other methods for assessment results of a certain LNG terminal. The example analysis shows that failure possibility of LNG terminal is low, development of failure possibility presents a rising trend.
出处
《中国安全科学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2014年第12期130-136,共7页
China Safety Science Journal
