厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Nino and Southern Oscillation,ENSO)对全球气候都具有重要的影响,如印度洋季风、秘鲁沿岸的渔业生产以及北美的气候等.过去的研究在ENSO的观测、理论、预报和数值模拟等方面都取得了长足的进展,但依然有很多问...厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Nino and Southern Oscillation,ENSO)对全球气候都具有重要的影响,如印度洋季风、秘鲁沿岸的渔业生产以及北美的气候等.过去的研究在ENSO的观测、理论、预报和数值模拟等方面都取得了长足的进展,但依然有很多问题尚待解决.本文简要地回顾了过去在ENSO的相关理论、预报、非对称性以及年代际变化、古气候下的变化以及数值模拟方面的研究:首先回顾了ENSO盛行的几组理论,具体包括Bjerknes正反馈机制、延迟振子理论、充放电振子理论、平流反射振子理论以及西太平洋振子理论.其次,系统地总结了厄尔尼诺常用的预报方法以及预报因子(如暖水体积、西太平洋风场、印度洋-太平洋风场的积分及赤道流场等),并讨论了目前预报仍然存在的局限性;非对称性和年代际变化是ENSO重要的特征,本文详细地阐述了这方面的相关研究进展及存在的问题.再次,介绍了关于ENSO的古气候研究目前所取得的成果以及主要结论,并对数值模拟方面仍然存在的问题及ENSO对其他海盆的影响进行了讨论;最后,对上述相关方面存在的不足以及亟待解决的问题进行了探讨和总结.展开更多
为进一步理解和探究末次冰消期以来东亚季风变化的时空特征,特别是全新世东亚季风的进退模式,在AMS14C年代的支持下,基于渑池湖相-湿地剖面的孢粉和沉积学指标(粒度、碳酸钙和总有机碳)的分析资料,重建了渑池盆地18.7 cal ka BP(ka BP...为进一步理解和探究末次冰消期以来东亚季风变化的时空特征,特别是全新世东亚季风的进退模式,在AMS14C年代的支持下,基于渑池湖相-湿地剖面的孢粉和沉积学指标(粒度、碳酸钙和总有机碳)的分析资料,重建了渑池盆地18.7 cal ka BP(ka BP表示距今千年)以来的气候与环境变化历史.重建结果表明:18.7~14.8 cal ka BP是草原环境下的黄土堆积时段.14.8~6.7 cal ka BP为湖泊存在时段,此时段是一个森林扩展和支持水域及湿地也扩展的时期.6.7~1.2 cal ka BP为湿地时段.此阶段的孢粉经历了3个亚阶段的变化,第一亚阶段(6.7~5.0 cal ka BP):草本花粉显著增加;第二亚阶段(5.0~2.8 cal ka BP):木本花粉显著增加;第三亚阶段(2.8~1.2 cal ka BP):草本花粉显著增加.基于木本花粉百分比和禾本科/(蒿属+藜科)比值重建的湿度序列显示,渑池盆地早全新世较为湿润(10~8 cal ka BP),中全新世前半段(8~5 cal ka BP)最为干旱,中全新世后半段(5~2.8 cal ka BP)最为湿润,晚全新世(2.8~1.2 cal ka BP)较为干旱.本文将中原地区的全新世湿度序列(即MC-1)与以北(中国北方)和以南(长江中下游地区)的全新世湿度序列进行了比较.比较结果显示:中原地区全新世最干旱时段发生在8.0~5.0 cal ka BP,中国北方全新世最湿润期的时段发生在7.8~5.0 cal ka BP.二者均很好地对应于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni?o-southern oscillation,ENSO)强度的低值阶段(8.0~5.0 cal ka BP).长江中下游地区全新世干旱期时段(7.0~3.0 cal ka BP)与ENSO强度的低值阶段也大致相对应.控制东亚季风影响下的中国东部全新世湿度空间格局的主要机制是ENSO状态以及由ENSO调控的西太平洋副热带高压(West Pacific subtropical high,WPSH)的南北向移动.介于长江中下游地区和中国北方之间的中原地区的全新世湿度状况似乎在二者之间摆动:有时候中原地区与长江中下游地区一起变化(如7.0~3.0 cal ka BP时段),有�展开更多
The autumn precipitation over southwest China is one of the main causes of meteorological disasters. Using observed monthly station rainfall data and HadISST and NCEP/NCAR analysis data, the impacts of three types of ...The autumn precipitation over southwest China is one of the main causes of meteorological disasters. Using observed monthly station rainfall data and HadISST and NCEP/NCAR analysis data, the impacts of three types of El Ni<span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span>o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the boreal autumn rainfall over southwest China were determined. Over southwest China, autumn rainfall constitutes > 20% of the total annual rainfall and a marked decline in autumn rainfall commenced around 1990. During La Ni<span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span></span>a events, there is surplus (deficit) over the middle (northwest and southeast) of southwest China. In cnetral Pacific (CP) El Ni<span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span>o events, the autumn rainfall anomaly shows a deficiency over China. The large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the three ENSO categories also exhibit distinct characteristics. During CP El Ni<span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span></span>o autumns, the pressure anomaly over the North Pacific Ocean displays a “<img src="Edit_8b97423a-3df3-4458-ad74-b4f2006dd708.png" alt="" />” structure, with a high-pressure anomaly over the Asian continent. An anomalous cyclone appears over the western North Pacific (WNP). In EP El Ni<span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span></span>o autumns, the pressure anomaly over the North Pacific Ocean has a “<img src="Edit_3a7520ca-bfdd-4f81-a35c-4118a4616a5a.png" alt="" />” structure, with a low-pressure anomaly over the Asian continent. An anomalous anticyclone appears over the WNP and the 500-hPa anomalies are opposite to those of CP El Ni<span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span></span></span>o events. During La Ni<span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span></span>a autumns, the characteristics of circulat展开更多
This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had...This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru. Such a localized El Nio was not documented since 1925. An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event(surprise),government responses may have been inadequate(as media reported) because of conflicting forecast reports(U.S. and Peru), which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making. Partly to blame was the El Nio definition problem, which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk, depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event. Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the El Nio costero's onset and impacts from the El Nio 2015–2016 were less than expected. Furthermore, a new government was in place, which may have hindered action. Thus, El Nio costero provides lessons to heed, not only with respect to the forecast information, but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.展开更多
文摘厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Nino and Southern Oscillation,ENSO)对全球气候都具有重要的影响,如印度洋季风、秘鲁沿岸的渔业生产以及北美的气候等.过去的研究在ENSO的观测、理论、预报和数值模拟等方面都取得了长足的进展,但依然有很多问题尚待解决.本文简要地回顾了过去在ENSO的相关理论、预报、非对称性以及年代际变化、古气候下的变化以及数值模拟方面的研究:首先回顾了ENSO盛行的几组理论,具体包括Bjerknes正反馈机制、延迟振子理论、充放电振子理论、平流反射振子理论以及西太平洋振子理论.其次,系统地总结了厄尔尼诺常用的预报方法以及预报因子(如暖水体积、西太平洋风场、印度洋-太平洋风场的积分及赤道流场等),并讨论了目前预报仍然存在的局限性;非对称性和年代际变化是ENSO重要的特征,本文详细地阐述了这方面的相关研究进展及存在的问题.再次,介绍了关于ENSO的古气候研究目前所取得的成果以及主要结论,并对数值模拟方面仍然存在的问题及ENSO对其他海盆的影响进行了讨论;最后,对上述相关方面存在的不足以及亟待解决的问题进行了探讨和总结.
文摘为进一步理解和探究末次冰消期以来东亚季风变化的时空特征,特别是全新世东亚季风的进退模式,在AMS14C年代的支持下,基于渑池湖相-湿地剖面的孢粉和沉积学指标(粒度、碳酸钙和总有机碳)的分析资料,重建了渑池盆地18.7 cal ka BP(ka BP表示距今千年)以来的气候与环境变化历史.重建结果表明:18.7~14.8 cal ka BP是草原环境下的黄土堆积时段.14.8~6.7 cal ka BP为湖泊存在时段,此时段是一个森林扩展和支持水域及湿地也扩展的时期.6.7~1.2 cal ka BP为湿地时段.此阶段的孢粉经历了3个亚阶段的变化,第一亚阶段(6.7~5.0 cal ka BP):草本花粉显著增加;第二亚阶段(5.0~2.8 cal ka BP):木本花粉显著增加;第三亚阶段(2.8~1.2 cal ka BP):草本花粉显著增加.基于木本花粉百分比和禾本科/(蒿属+藜科)比值重建的湿度序列显示,渑池盆地早全新世较为湿润(10~8 cal ka BP),中全新世前半段(8~5 cal ka BP)最为干旱,中全新世后半段(5~2.8 cal ka BP)最为湿润,晚全新世(2.8~1.2 cal ka BP)较为干旱.本文将中原地区的全新世湿度序列(即MC-1)与以北(中国北方)和以南(长江中下游地区)的全新世湿度序列进行了比较.比较结果显示:中原地区全新世最干旱时段发生在8.0~5.0 cal ka BP,中国北方全新世最湿润期的时段发生在7.8~5.0 cal ka BP.二者均很好地对应于厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Ni?o-southern oscillation,ENSO)强度的低值阶段(8.0~5.0 cal ka BP).长江中下游地区全新世干旱期时段(7.0~3.0 cal ka BP)与ENSO强度的低值阶段也大致相对应.控制东亚季风影响下的中国东部全新世湿度空间格局的主要机制是ENSO状态以及由ENSO调控的西太平洋副热带高压(West Pacific subtropical high,WPSH)的南北向移动.介于长江中下游地区和中国北方之间的中原地区的全新世湿度状况似乎在二者之间摆动:有时候中原地区与长江中下游地区一起变化(如7.0~3.0 cal ka BP时段),有�
文摘中西太平洋热带海域是世界上最大的鲣(Katsuwonus pelamis)渔场。为合理开发和利用中西太平洋围网鲣自由鱼群的渔业资源,根据1995—2019年中西太平洋渔业委员会的围网鲣数据计算资源丰度指数,得出渔场重心,并结合海表温度(Sea surface temperature,SST)、海洋尼诺指数(Oceanic Niño Index,ONI)进行皮尔森相关性分析。结果显示,单位捕捞努力量渔获量(Catch per unit effort,CPUE)可用于表征自由鱼群渔场重心的资源丰度,且与暖池重心经度以及右边缘经度有显著相关性;渔场重心与暖池指标(暖池重心经度与右边缘经度)的相对位置以及变动趋势在不同气候模式下存在差异,而在同一气候模式中相同。结果表明,渔场重心可通过暖池重心的变化进行预测,而通过构建暖池场与自由鱼群资源丰度的时空分布关系发现,暖池右边缘能够与自由鱼群的空间分布产生联系,为商业性捕捞围网鲣自由鱼群提供渔场边界的指示,为其资源开发与养护提供科学依据。
文摘The autumn precipitation over southwest China is one of the main causes of meteorological disasters. Using observed monthly station rainfall data and HadISST and NCEP/NCAR analysis data, the impacts of three types of El Ni<span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span>o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the boreal autumn rainfall over southwest China were determined. Over southwest China, autumn rainfall constitutes > 20% of the total annual rainfall and a marked decline in autumn rainfall commenced around 1990. During La Ni<span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span></span>a events, there is surplus (deficit) over the middle (northwest and southeast) of southwest China. In cnetral Pacific (CP) El Ni<span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span>o events, the autumn rainfall anomaly shows a deficiency over China. The large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the three ENSO categories also exhibit distinct characteristics. During CP El Ni<span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span></span>o autumns, the pressure anomaly over the North Pacific Ocean displays a “<img src="Edit_8b97423a-3df3-4458-ad74-b4f2006dd708.png" alt="" />” structure, with a high-pressure anomaly over the Asian continent. An anomalous cyclone appears over the western North Pacific (WNP). In EP El Ni<span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span></span>o autumns, the pressure anomaly over the North Pacific Ocean has a “<img src="Edit_3a7520ca-bfdd-4f81-a35c-4118a4616a5a.png" alt="" />” structure, with a low-pressure anomaly over the Asian continent. An anomalous anticyclone appears over the WNP and the 500-hPa anomalies are opposite to those of CP El Ni<span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span></span></span>o events. During La Ni<span style="white-space:normal;"><span style="white-space:normal;">ñ</span></span>a autumns, the characteristics of circulat
文摘This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru. Such a localized El Nio was not documented since 1925. An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event(surprise),government responses may have been inadequate(as media reported) because of conflicting forecast reports(U.S. and Peru), which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making. Partly to blame was the El Nio definition problem, which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk, depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event. Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the El Nio costero's onset and impacts from the El Nio 2015–2016 were less than expected. Furthermore, a new government was in place, which may have hindered action. Thus, El Nio costero provides lessons to heed, not only with respect to the forecast information, but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.
