摘要
火山喷发主要通过改变大气成分进而影响气候异常,火山喷发后在平流层形成的硫酸盐气溶胶是影响气候变化的重要自然外强迫因子.本文在概述火山喷发影响气候的基本原理和研究方法基础上,围绕着过去2500年主要火山事件的记录重建,火山喷发对全球气候、厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Niño-southern oscillation,ENSO)、东亚和中国气候的影响,火山喷发对年代际气候预测和未来气候预估的影响、火山空气污染及其人体健康影响等问题,总结了近年来的主要进展,探讨了亟待加强的研究方向.主要结论如下:(1)较为可靠的火山气溶胶强迫资料重建已延伸至过去2500年,全球范围内能够造成有效辐射强迫减少1 W m−2以上的大型火山喷发的平均周期为43±7.5年;记录重建的难点在于如何利用冰芯中的硫酸盐记录来重建火山强度、持续时间和空间分布等.(2)火山气溶胶的全球气候影响,包括令全球平均温度降低和冬季北半球中高纬地区升温,使全球平均降水减少,季风环流减弱,季风降水减少;火山喷发后平流层水汽的增加能够部分抵消火山气溶胶的冷却作用;火山喷发还能够影响海表高度、海温和海洋环流的年代际变化,通过影响生态系统碳循环造成大气中CO_(2)浓度降低.(3)热带火山喷发后太平洋会出现El Niño型海温响应,热带和北半球高纬度火山喷发对El Niño型海温异常形成的驱动作用强于南半球火山,海温初始位相能够影响火山喷发对ENSO的影响.(4)火山气溶胶能够导致东亚地区气温下降,出现极端低温,并使东亚夏季风环流减弱,中国东部降水总体减少,但呈现出空间分布上的不均匀性.(5)考虑火山气溶胶的影响能够提升年代际气候预测技巧,强迫气候系统内部变率模态的位相变化,潜在的火山喷发能够导致预估的未来百年全球平均温度低于预期、全球季风区降水减少.(6)火山喷发能�
Volcanic eruptions affect the climate by changing the atmospheric composition.By injecting sulfur gases into the lower stratosphere and converting them to sulfate aerosols,volcanic eruptions are important natural external forcings of climate change.Based on an overview of the basic principles of and research methods for assessing volcanic impacts on climate,recent progress in major volcanic eruption records during the past 2500 years;the impact of volcanic eruptions on the global climate,El Niño-southern oscillation(ENSO)and climate over East Asia and China;volcanic impacts on decadal climate prediction and projection;and volcanic air pollution and its human health effects are summarized in this paper.Avenues for future research are also outlined based on previous studies.We aim to provide comparative research on the impacts of natural and anthropogenic external forcings on climate change.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)A reliable reconstruction of the volcanic aerosol forcing dataset has been extended to the past 2500 years,and an average period of large volcanic eruptions of 43±7.5 years can cause a global reduction in effective radiative forcing of more than 1 W m–2.It is challenging to use the sulfate records in ice cores to reconstruct the intensity,duration and spatial distribution of volcanic eruptions.(2)The global climate impacts of volcanic aerosols include lower global mean temperatures,winter warming in the mid-to-high latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere,reduced global mean precipitation,weakened monsoon circulation,and decreased monsoon precipitation,which are shown in observations,reconstructions and climate model simulations.Increased stratospheric water vapor was observed by satellites during the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcanic eruption,which could partially offset the cooling effect of volcanic aerosols based on an idealized model simulation.Volcanic eruptions can also lead to decadal changes in sea level height,sea surface temperature(SST)and ocean circulation and redu
作者
周天军
左萌
满文敏
Tianjun Zhou;Meng Zuo;Wenmin Man(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG),Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049,China)
出处
《科学通报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第2期230-252,共23页
Chinese Science Bulletin
基金
中国科学院学部咨询评议项目(2022-ZW04-A-010)
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2019QZKK0102)
中国科学院国际伙伴计划-国际大科学计划培育专项(134111KYSB20160031)
国家自然科学基金(42105047,42075041)资助。
关键词
火山气溶胶
重建和气候模拟
温度
降水
厄尔尼诺-南方涛动
气候预测和预估
volcanic aerosols
proxy records and climate modeling
temperature
precipitation
El Niño-southern oscillation(ENSO)
climate prediction and projection
