Investigating long-term variation and prediction of streamflow are critical to regional water resource management and planning. Under the continuous influence of climate change and human activity, the trends of hydrol...Investigating long-term variation and prediction of streamflow are critical to regional water resource management and planning. Under the continuous influence of climate change and human activity, the trends of hydrologic time series are nonstationary, and consequently the established methods for hydrological frequency analysis are no longer applicable. Five methods,including the linear regression, nonlinear regression,change point analysis, wavelet analysis and HilbertHuang transformation, were first selected to detect and identify the deterministic and stochastic components of streamflow. The results indicated there was a significant long-term increasing trend. To test the applicability of these five methods, a comprehensive weighted index was then used to assess their performance. This index showed that the linear regression was the best method. Secondly,using the normality test for stochastic components separated by the linear regression method, a normal distribution requirement was satisfied. Next, the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation technique was used to simulate these stochastic components with normal distribution, and thus a new ensemble hydrological time series was obtained by combining the corresponding deterministic components. Finally, according to these outcomes, the streamflow at different frequencies in 2020 was predicted.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to describe an economical approach to an existing adaptive localization technique and its implementation in the proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational ...The purpose of this study is to describe an economical approach to an existing adaptive localization technique and its implementation in the proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational assimilation method(PODEn4DVar). Owing to the applications of the sparse processing and EOF decomposition techniques, the computational costs of this proposed sparse flow-adaptive moderation(SFAM) localization scheme are significantly reduced. The effectiveness of PODEn4 DVar with SFAM localization is demonstrated by using the Lorenz-96 model in comparison with the Smoothed ENsemble Correlations Raised to a Power(SENCORP) and static localization schemes, separately. The performance of PODEn4 DVar with SFAM localization shows a moderate improvement over the schemes with SENCORP and static localization, with low computational costs under the imperfect model.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51439006, 91425302)the Governmental Public Research Funds for Projects of Ministry of Water Resources (201501017)
文摘Investigating long-term variation and prediction of streamflow are critical to regional water resource management and planning. Under the continuous influence of climate change and human activity, the trends of hydrologic time series are nonstationary, and consequently the established methods for hydrological frequency analysis are no longer applicable. Five methods,including the linear regression, nonlinear regression,change point analysis, wavelet analysis and HilbertHuang transformation, were first selected to detect and identify the deterministic and stochastic components of streamflow. The results indicated there was a significant long-term increasing trend. To test the applicability of these five methods, a comprehensive weighted index was then used to assess their performance. This index showed that the linear regression was the best method. Secondly,using the normality test for stochastic components separated by the linear regression method, a normal distribution requirement was satisfied. Next, the Monte Carlo stochastic simulation technique was used to simulate these stochastic components with normal distribution, and thus a new ensemble hydrological time series was obtained by combining the corresponding deterministic components. Finally, according to these outcomes, the streamflow at different frequencies in 2020 was predicted.
基金partially supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2013AA122002)the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2EW-QN207)the Special Fund for Meteorological Scientific Research in the Public Interest (Grant No. GYHY201306045)
文摘The purpose of this study is to describe an economical approach to an existing adaptive localization technique and its implementation in the proper orthogonal decomposition-based ensemble four-dimensional variational assimilation method(PODEn4DVar). Owing to the applications of the sparse processing and EOF decomposition techniques, the computational costs of this proposed sparse flow-adaptive moderation(SFAM) localization scheme are significantly reduced. The effectiveness of PODEn4 DVar with SFAM localization is demonstrated by using the Lorenz-96 model in comparison with the Smoothed ENsemble Correlations Raised to a Power(SENCORP) and static localization schemes, separately. The performance of PODEn4 DVar with SFAM localization shows a moderate improvement over the schemes with SENCORP and static localization, with low computational costs under the imperfect model.
