Based on gridded meteorological data for the period 1981-2100 from the RegCM3 regional model, the changing trends of climatic resources in Northeast China are analyzed, and the distributions of maize va-rieties are ac...Based on gridded meteorological data for the period 1981-2100 from the RegCM3 regional model, the changing trends of climatic resources in Northeast China are analyzed, and the distributions of maize va-rieties are accordingly adjusted. In order to explore the eff ects of diff erent adaptation countermeasures on climatic productivity and meteorological suitability in the future, maize cultivars with resistance to high temperatures and/or drought are selected. The results show that, in the future, there is likely to be a sig-nifi cant increase in thermal resources, and potential atmospheric evaporation will increase correspondingly. Meanwhile, radiation is predicted to increase signifi cantly during 2041-2070 in the growing season. How-ever, changes in precipitation are unlikely to be suffi cient enough to off set the intensifi cation in atmospheric evaporation caused by the temperature increase. Water resources and high temperatures are found to be the two major factors constraining grain yield. The results also show that the warming climate will be favorable for maize production where thermal resources are already limited, such as in central and northern Heilongjiang Province and eastern Jilin Province; while in areas that are already relatively warm, such as Liaoning Province, climatic productivity will be reduced. The climatic productivity and the meteorological suitability of maize are found to improve when the planting of resistant varieties is modeled. The utilization of agricultural climatic resources through the adaptation countermeasures of maize varieties is to increase obviously with time. Specifi cally, maize with drought-resistant properties will have a marked infl uence on meteorological suitability during 2011-2070, with suitable areas expanding. During 2071-2100, those maize varieties with their upper limit of optimum temperature and maximum temperature increased by 2℃, or water requirement reduced to 94%, or upper limit of optimum temperature and maximum temperature in-creased by 1℃and water 展开更多
基金Supported by the China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201106020)National Natural Science Foundation of China(31371530)
文摘Based on gridded meteorological data for the period 1981-2100 from the RegCM3 regional model, the changing trends of climatic resources in Northeast China are analyzed, and the distributions of maize va-rieties are accordingly adjusted. In order to explore the eff ects of diff erent adaptation countermeasures on climatic productivity and meteorological suitability in the future, maize cultivars with resistance to high temperatures and/or drought are selected. The results show that, in the future, there is likely to be a sig-nifi cant increase in thermal resources, and potential atmospheric evaporation will increase correspondingly. Meanwhile, radiation is predicted to increase signifi cantly during 2041-2070 in the growing season. How-ever, changes in precipitation are unlikely to be suffi cient enough to off set the intensifi cation in atmospheric evaporation caused by the temperature increase. Water resources and high temperatures are found to be the two major factors constraining grain yield. The results also show that the warming climate will be favorable for maize production where thermal resources are already limited, such as in central and northern Heilongjiang Province and eastern Jilin Province; while in areas that are already relatively warm, such as Liaoning Province, climatic productivity will be reduced. The climatic productivity and the meteorological suitability of maize are found to improve when the planting of resistant varieties is modeled. The utilization of agricultural climatic resources through the adaptation countermeasures of maize varieties is to increase obviously with time. Specifi cally, maize with drought-resistant properties will have a marked infl uence on meteorological suitability during 2011-2070, with suitable areas expanding. During 2071-2100, those maize varieties with their upper limit of optimum temperature and maximum temperature increased by 2℃, or water requirement reduced to 94%, or upper limit of optimum temperature and maximum temperature in-creased by 1℃and water
