China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s grow...China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s growth slowdown since 2008 up to 2013 using a growth accounting model in a systematic way. It is found that China ＂s growth slowdown since 2008 almost completely comes from a sharp slowdown in total factor productivity growth. During this period, the positive effect on growth from expanding investment has been completely offset by the negative effect of the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. Currently, China＇s economy has slid into the Solow downward path. Under these circumstances, a soft landing is completely infeasible. Unless the Chinese Government implements substantial rebalancing and comprehensive and in-depth market-oriented reform, accompanied by large-scale de-investment （decreasing in the ratio of investment in GDP） and massive employment adjustment, China will be unable to avoid the Solow downward path, and a hard landing in investment will be inevitable in the near future.展开更多
Consistency is essential in statistical data processing. This paper reports some notable discrepancies in China＇s GDP accounting, which are unexpectedly found after testing the consistency of GDP accounting and its c...Consistency is essential in statistical data processing. This paper reports some notable discrepancies in China＇s GDP accounting, which are unexpectedly found after testing the consistency of GDP accounting and its components. Although these discrepancies are mainly attributed to the revision methodology adopted afier the 2004 economic census, the intention to harmonize GDP accounting data, in terms of production and expenditure, also contributes to the discrepancies. Our ftnding highlights the need for careful checking of consistency and for testing before formal release of any official statistics.展开更多
文摘China has wimessed an unprecedented great leap forward in investment since the 2008 global financial crisis, and at the same time real GDP growth has undergone a significant slowdown. This paper examines China＇s growth slowdown since 2008 up to 2013 using a growth accounting model in a systematic way. It is found that China ＂s growth slowdown since 2008 almost completely comes from a sharp slowdown in total factor productivity growth. During this period, the positive effect on growth from expanding investment has been completely offset by the negative effect of the slowdown in total factor productivity growth. Currently, China＇s economy has slid into the Solow downward path. Under these circumstances, a soft landing is completely infeasible. Unless the Chinese Government implements substantial rebalancing and comprehensive and in-depth market-oriented reform, accompanied by large-scale de-investment （decreasing in the ratio of investment in GDP） and massive employment adjustment, China will be unable to avoid the Solow downward path, and a hard landing in investment will be inevitable in the near future.
文摘Consistency is essential in statistical data processing. This paper reports some notable discrepancies in China＇s GDP accounting, which are unexpectedly found after testing the consistency of GDP accounting and its components. Although these discrepancies are mainly attributed to the revision methodology adopted afier the 2004 economic census, the intention to harmonize GDP accounting data, in terms of production and expenditure, also contributes to the discrepancies. Our ftnding highlights the need for careful checking of consistency and for testing before formal release of any official statistics.
