We used daily maximum temperature data（1986–2100） from the COSMO-CLM（COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode） regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the fr...We used daily maximum temperature data（1986–2100） from the COSMO-CLM（COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode） regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events（EMTEs） with the intensity–area–duration method. Between 1986 and 2005（reference period）, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330–1680 times yr^–1, 31.4–33.3℃, and 1.76–3.88 million km^2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5–392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986–2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13–6.84, 0.32–1.50, and15.98%–30.68%, respectively, under 1.5℃ warming; under 2.0℃ warming, the increases are 1.73–12.48, 0.64–2.76,and 31.96%–50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5℃ warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0℃ warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0℃ warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%–39.2% and 26.6%–48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0℃ warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0℃ will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5℃.展开更多
Daily snow data for 2300 climate stations covering the period from 1951 through 1980 have been used to monitor and diagnose secular variations,year-to-year fluctuations,and the spatial characteristics of snow variatio...Daily snow data for 2300 climate stations covering the period from 1951 through 1980 have been used to monitor and diagnose secular variations,year-to-year fluctuations,and the spatial characteristics of snow variation trends in China.An examination of time series reveals that there is a strong teleconnction to ENSO,to major volcanic eruptions, as well as to the CO_2-induced warming.The country-wide snow mass variations are positively correlated with global mean temperature,increasing during the current warming period and decreasing during the recent cooling period prior to the mid 1960s.A synchronous relationship exists between El Nino/Southern Oscillation and snowy winter in China. The year-to-year snow fluctuations seem to be generally out of phase with volcanic activity.The anomaly map shows that snow mass increased in high altitudes and moist regions,while it decreased in arid lowland and the southern bounda- ry zone during the warming period.The potential CO_2-induced changes in snow mass will further aggravate the regional differentiation between high mountains and lowlands,between moist and arid regions.The number of snow cover days will decrease in the northern lowlands,and snowfall will increase in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,high mountains,and the lower reaches of the Changjiang(Yangtze)River.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41571494,41661144027,and 41671211)
文摘We used daily maximum temperature data（1986–2100） from the COSMO-CLM（COnsortium for Small-scale MOdeling in CLimate Mode） regional climate model and the population statistics for China in 2010 to determine the frequency, intensity, coverage, and population exposure of extreme maximum temperature events（EMTEs） with the intensity–area–duration method. Between 1986 and 2005（reference period）, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs are 1330–1680 times yr^–1, 31.4–33.3℃, and 1.76–3.88 million km^2, respectively. The center of the most severe EMTEs is located in central China and 179.5–392.8 million people are exposed to EMTEs annually. Relative to 1986–2005, the frequency, intensity, and coverage of EMTEs increase by 1.13–6.84, 0.32–1.50, and15.98%–30.68%, respectively, under 1.5℃ warming; under 2.0℃ warming, the increases are 1.73–12.48, 0.64–2.76,and 31.96%–50.00%, respectively. It is possible that both the intensity and coverage of future EMTEs could exceed the most severe EMTEs currently observed. Two new centers of EMTEs are projected to develop under 1.5℃ warming, one in North China and the other in Southwest China. Under 2.0℃ warming, a fourth EMTE center is projected to develop in Northwest China. Under 1.5 and 2.0℃ warming, population exposure is projected to increase by 23.2%–39.2% and 26.6%–48%, respectively. From a regional perspective, population exposure is expected to increase most rapidly in Southwest China. A greater proportion of the population in North, Northeast, and Northwest China will be exposed to EMTEs under 2.0℃ warming. The results show that a warming world will lead to increases in the intensity, frequency, and coverage of EMTEs. Warming of 2.0℃ will lead to both more severe EMTEs and the exposure of more people to EMTEs. Given the probability of the increased occurrence of more severe EMTEs than in the past, it is vitally important to China that the global temperature increase is limited within 1.5℃.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China through Grant No.4880019.
文摘Daily snow data for 2300 climate stations covering the period from 1951 through 1980 have been used to monitor and diagnose secular variations,year-to-year fluctuations,and the spatial characteristics of snow variation trends in China.An examination of time series reveals that there is a strong teleconnction to ENSO,to major volcanic eruptions, as well as to the CO_2-induced warming.The country-wide snow mass variations are positively correlated with global mean temperature,increasing during the current warming period and decreasing during the recent cooling period prior to the mid 1960s.A synchronous relationship exists between El Nino/Southern Oscillation and snowy winter in China. The year-to-year snow fluctuations seem to be generally out of phase with volcanic activity.The anomaly map shows that snow mass increased in high altitudes and moist regions,while it decreased in arid lowland and the southern bounda- ry zone during the warming period.The potential CO_2-induced changes in snow mass will further aggravate the regional differentiation between high mountains and lowlands,between moist and arid regions.The number of snow cover days will decrease in the northern lowlands,and snowfall will increase in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,high mountains,and the lower reaches of the Changjiang(Yangtze)River.
