利用回归统计方法分析了热带印度洋海盆模影响西北地区东部5月降水异常的大气环流异常分布及可能的物理机制。结果表明:印度洋暖海盆模可以在亚欧地区大气中引起类似"Matsuno-Gill Pattern"的大气响应,在对流层中上层形成异...利用回归统计方法分析了热带印度洋海盆模影响西北地区东部5月降水异常的大气环流异常分布及可能的物理机制。结果表明:印度洋暖海盆模可以在亚欧地区大气中引起类似"Matsuno-Gill Pattern"的大气响应,在对流层中上层形成异常波列,西北地区东部正好位于新疆—巴尔喀什湖负异常中心和东亚地区正异常中心之间,处在明显西低东高的高度场异常形势下,这正是西北地区东部5月降水异常偏多的典型环流形势。对应波列分布,欧亚范围存在3个明显异常气旋、反气旋,对流层高层200 h Pa华北到西北地区东部为大片气流异常辐散区,低层850 h Pa为气流辐合,形成异常垂直上升运动,有利于西北区东部降水异常偏多。因此印度洋海盆模是通过引起遥相关波列,在西北地区东部上空形成西低东高的异常环流,从而影响该地区的降水异常。展开更多
选取了两例迅速增强的南海土台风"蝴蝶"(1321)与"银河"(1603),分析了其增强时南海及周边海域的高低空环流形势、垂直风切变情况和海洋热状况,并利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF)模式探究两者...选取了两例迅速增强的南海土台风"蝴蝶"(1321)与"银河"(1603),分析了其增强时南海及周边海域的高低空环流形势、垂直风切变情况和海洋热状况,并利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF)模式探究两者强度不同的环境原因。"银河"虽具有较有利的海洋下垫面条件,但并未发展为台风,是因为不利的高低空环流形势和垂直风切变条件。"蝴蝶"迅速增强为强台风是因为其发生时北方冷空气南下,西南暖湿气流爆发等有利条件。WRF模式对海表面温度(SST)影响土台风强度的敏感性实验表明,土台风强度对于SST的响应表现为非线性正相关,SST升高,土台风增强的速率将减缓。7—9月的南海SST均高于28℃,已满足土台风增强条件。因此,在对于土台风的预报中,需特别注意SST以外的其他环境因子。展开更多
The present paper uses planktonic foraminifera and their stableisotopes to study the changes in the depth of thermocline (DOT) in the Okinawa Trough since the last 10000 a based on the analysis of Core B-3GC in the no...The present paper uses planktonic foraminifera and their stableisotopes to study the changes in the depth of thermocline (DOT) in the Okinawa Trough since the last 10000 a based on the analysis of Core B-3GC in the northern Okinawa Trough, together with that of the core in the southern Okinawa Trough. As results show, the thermocline was shallow before 6400 aBP, and deepened afterward, then became shallow again from 4000 to 2000 aBP. The DOT fluctuations display a positive correlation with those of sea surface temperature (SST). In addition, the changes in the northern Okinawa Trough are similar to those in the southern trough, implying a possible connection with the variation of the Kuroshio Current. The changes of SST and DOT suggest that the Kuroshio Current changed its intensity or main axis from 4000 to 2000 aBP and around about 6400 aBP respectively. Moreover, the changes of DOT from 8200 to 6400 aBP may indicate a gradual intensification of the Kuroshio Current.展开更多
文摘利用回归统计方法分析了热带印度洋海盆模影响西北地区东部5月降水异常的大气环流异常分布及可能的物理机制。结果表明:印度洋暖海盆模可以在亚欧地区大气中引起类似"Matsuno-Gill Pattern"的大气响应,在对流层中上层形成异常波列,西北地区东部正好位于新疆—巴尔喀什湖负异常中心和东亚地区正异常中心之间,处在明显西低东高的高度场异常形势下,这正是西北地区东部5月降水异常偏多的典型环流形势。对应波列分布,欧亚范围存在3个明显异常气旋、反气旋,对流层高层200 h Pa华北到西北地区东部为大片气流异常辐散区,低层850 h Pa为气流辐合,形成异常垂直上升运动,有利于西北区东部降水异常偏多。因此印度洋海盆模是通过引起遥相关波列,在西北地区东部上空形成西低东高的异常环流,从而影响该地区的降水异常。
文摘选取了两例迅速增强的南海土台风"蝴蝶"(1321)与"银河"(1603),分析了其增强时南海及周边海域的高低空环流形势、垂直风切变情况和海洋热状况,并利用WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model,WRF)模式探究两者强度不同的环境原因。"银河"虽具有较有利的海洋下垫面条件,但并未发展为台风,是因为不利的高低空环流形势和垂直风切变条件。"蝴蝶"迅速增强为强台风是因为其发生时北方冷空气南下,西南暖湿气流爆发等有利条件。WRF模式对海表面温度(SST)影响土台风强度的敏感性实验表明,土台风强度对于SST的响应表现为非线性正相关,SST升高,土台风增强的速率将减缓。7—9月的南海SST均高于28℃,已满足土台风增强条件。因此,在对于土台风的预报中,需特别注意SST以外的其他环境因子。
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 49999560, 49776289) the Program for the Young Scientific and Technological Stars of Shanghai (Grant No. 98QG14043).
文摘The present paper uses planktonic foraminifera and their stableisotopes to study the changes in the depth of thermocline (DOT) in the Okinawa Trough since the last 10000 a based on the analysis of Core B-3GC in the northern Okinawa Trough, together with that of the core in the southern Okinawa Trough. As results show, the thermocline was shallow before 6400 aBP, and deepened afterward, then became shallow again from 4000 to 2000 aBP. The DOT fluctuations display a positive correlation with those of sea surface temperature (SST). In addition, the changes in the northern Okinawa Trough are similar to those in the southern trough, implying a possible connection with the variation of the Kuroshio Current. The changes of SST and DOT suggest that the Kuroshio Current changed its intensity or main axis from 4000 to 2000 aBP and around about 6400 aBP respectively. Moreover, the changes of DOT from 8200 to 6400 aBP may indicate a gradual intensification of the Kuroshio Current.
