摘要
选择5—9月的平均海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)作为环境因子,采用Schaefer模型和Fox模型对太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群渔获量进行评价。假设ΔU(观测和预测单位捕捞努力量渔获量残差)是由SST引起的,从而将SST引入太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群的评估模型中。根据1960年以来太平洋褶柔鱼秋生群渔业整体发展情况,以1993和2003年为界对1985—2014年的总渔获量进行分段分析,分别为:1985—1993年、1994—2002年和2003—2014年。根据是否引入SST和引入SST后是否分段,分别构建了3个Schaefer模型和3个Fox模型。结果显示,分段Schaefer model-SST的拟合效果最好,ΔU与SST显著负线性相关(P<0.05),渔获量在18~23℃会随温度升高而降低。建议:模型建立过程中应根据不同时间段的情况不同而进行分段分析,这样可以提高拟合效果;用分段Schaefer model-SST对未来渔获量进行评估,以期对相关资源管理起到一定的借鉴意义。
Based on the average sea surface temperature(SST)from May to September,the Schaefer model and the Fox model were used to estimate the catch for the autumn cohort of Todarodes pacificus.It is assumed that theΔU(residuals of catch per unit effort between the observed and predicted values)calculated form the traditional surplus yield models were correlated with SST,and the SST-based surplus yield models were established.According to the overall development of the autumn cohort of T.pacificus fishery since the 1960s,the total catches from 1985 to 2014 were analyzed separately i.e.from 1985 to 1993,from 1994 to 2002,and from 2003 to 2014.According to with/without SST and whether to segment with SST,three Schaefer models and three Fox models were constructed respectively.Results indicated that the segmented Schaefer model-SST was the best,there was a negative linear correlation betweenΔU and SST(P<0.05),and the catch decreased with the increase of temperature from 18 to 23℃.It is suggested that:the model establishment process should be segmented according to the different time periods,which can improve the model fitting;the segmental Schaefer model-SST can be used to evaluate the future catch to provide some reference for related resource management when calculating the maximum sustainable yield.
作者
吴梦瑶
田思泉
WU Mengyao;TIAN Siquan(College of Marine Sciences,Shanghai Ocean University,Shanghai 201306,China;National Distant-water Fisheries Engineering Research Center,Shanghai 201306,China;The key Laboratory of Sustainable Exploitation of Oceanic Fisheries Resources,Ministry of Education,Shanghai 201306,China;Key Laboratory of Oceanic Fisheries Exploration,Ministry of Angriculture and Rural Affairs,Shanghai 201306,China)
出处
《上海海洋大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第6期933-942,共10页
Journal of Shanghai Ocean University
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41306127)
